## Friday, February 21, 2014

### A followup: It's math man

One of our favorite sayings around the office is "it's math".  While words can be twisted and turned, in math, there is usually an answer that is correct and an answer that is incorrect.  It's how we can change the mind of someone who may not believe or agree with an argument until we put numbers in front of them.  Then, well, it's math man!

“You can’t go on the road and keep shooting 30 percent”
~Bruiser Flint, postgame at JMU

Frantz and Chris had 22% of their shots blocked in the JMU game since the JMU defense was just stacking up on them whenever they crossed the three point arc.

Frantz is shooting 41% from the field this year.  If only 78% of his shots end up going towards the basket, and he hits 41% of those, we can expect him to make 32% of his shots.

Chris is shooting 39% from the field this year.  If only 78% of his shots end up going towards the basket, and he hits 39% of those, we can expect him to make 30% of his shots.

Chris and Frantz ended up shooting 25% from inside the arc in this game.  Given that they were expected to shoot about 30%, and given the number of shots JMU blocked, we can assume that many of the duo's other shots were well defended, hence 25% feels about right.

Shooting 30% may be something that you can't afford to do.  It's also exactly what Bru should expect to happen when you play right into that type of defense.  On the road, at home, or on the moon.

It's math, man.

Also math?  The Dragons are 6-1 when a forward scores 10 points in a game.  The one loss was a 2 point loss at Towson, when the offense still scored a very effective 1.18 points per possession.