The Dragons will walk into the most hostile environment that they will see this year when they visit Saint Joseph's University this Wednesday. They will be facing a Hawk family that is running scared, coming off of back to back losses to city schools and not looking to be at the bottom of the "good teams" pile in the city. There's talk of Phil being done and of the season being over before the conference season ever begins.
That's all garbage of course. The joy of being in the A-10 is that the Hawks will have plenty more opportunities for a good win, and losing to a high RPI Drexel team, even at home, won't end any chances of making a run. On the Drexel side, they'll probably need to go 15-1 in the CAA Regular Season for a win at Hawk Hill to matter to their at large chances. This game is much more about pride than it will ever be about the month of March, but in Philadelphia pride matters maybe more than anywhere else in the college basketball landscape. AAU coaches can feel it, recruits see it, donors sense it, and when it comes to talking to your friends and colleagues you're certainly going to hear it. And so this game is a big game.
As a Drexel fan, I love that. I just love it. When this team plays big games, they come to win. They played under the bright lights of MSG, in front of friends and family and they played with the best team in the country, and they beat a decent SEC team, and they did so while shooting like criminals firing at the A-Team. They couldn't hit the broad side of a barn at MSG and they still walked out with the country impressed. Against UCLA? Same story. I do not expect Drexel to lose the turnover battle in this game. I do not expect Drexel to be outrebounded in this game. Coming off of a couple of letdown spots against Tennessee St and Davidson, I expect the return of the A-Game for this one. On the flip side, the 11 day layoff for the Hawks means they'll be rested and healthy, but will they be sharp?
The Hawks aren't quite a two man team, but it's close. Langston Galloway and Ronald Roberts are seniors, and they're both elite players. Galloway has never shot less than 39% from three which is something that Gerry McNamera, Gary Neal and Stephen Curry can't say about their college careers. Roberts compliments him nicely and may be the best pure big man that Drexel has seen this year, which is high praise given DU's top 50 strength of schedule. He's got real post moves, can play with his back to the basket and gets the ball fed to him - he's taken three times as many shots as Dartaye has this year and done so while playing one less game then Ruffin.
There's another shoe to drop though: Galloway and Roberts have taken 50% of their shots while they're on the floor for the Hawks and there's a good reason. There's just not much else in the cupboard right now at Hagan Arena. Old Hofstra buddy Halil Kanacevic never really developed much beyond what we saw from him in his early career, Chris Wilson is a bit of a poor mans Derrick Thomas which is as disturbing to write as it is shocking to read, and Daryus Quarles isn't seeing 20 minutes a game as a senior. DeAndre Brembry looks like he could be a real player, but he's probably outshot his expectations thus far and Martelli is smartly trying to avoid throwing too much responsibility at him too fast. While the senior stars for the Hawks are legitimate studs, the supporting cast looks more like something you would see in the CAA than the A-10.
Across the court, Freddie Wilson looks like he can pick up some of the slack from Tavon Allen and give Drexel five legitimate scoring options on the court at once. Massenat, Fouch, Abif and Ruffin all have very strong offensive ratings on Kenpom, and the timing appears phenomenal as the shots have just started to fall for the Dragons in the last couple of games. Fouch and Frantz have combined to shoot 13 of 28 from downtown and Tavon Allen has maxed out at 12 shots in those contest, while only taking two poor choice shots last game, down significantly from earlier this year.
All season long I've said that when this team puts it all together, they're going to be a tough beat. The referees could well influence this contest as the Hawks will need all they can get from Galloway and Roberts and the Dragons will need Massenat and Ruffin to play their games. Foul trouble for any of those four changes their teams gameplan and quickly. If Drexel brings its A-Game or if the Hawks supporting cast steps up, it won't matter what the refs do though. And if I had to choose which of those is more likely, well...
Prediction: Drexel 74 - Saint Joe's 63
Vegas Line: SJU -2.5
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
It's a Trust Thing
~Democritus
Here's the thing about inbounding the ball. There is an expectation, a trust, amongst players, administrators and fans that when attempting to inbound the ball, their team will successfully get the ball inbounds to a player on the same team. Except at Drexel.
At Drexel, they saw the loss to UCLA, which should have been one of the top 5 wins in program history. Drexel fans saw the defensive blown coverage that led to a home run pass winning the game for VCU at the DAC. Further examples against both Hofstra, ODU and rival Delaware are easily recalled when talking to fans. In both losses this year there are examples of having troubles passing the ball from out of bounds.
Against Davidson, Bob McKillop knew the inbounds play so well that he put his 5'11" point guard between two Drexel big men in the stack, because he knew that they were never going to catch the ball going to the basket, but Fouch was going to curl around them and then the pg could peal out, leaving Dartaye Ruffin completely unguarded and pickup Fouch. Ruffin ended up dropping from the stack to half court and catching the inbounds pass in an area where him holding the ball didn't threaten the Wildcats at all. What could have been Florida Gulf Coast Dunk City became running the normal offense with a shorter than normal shot clock. It's as if Bruiser has said "I understand the fans not trusting me with inbounds plays because I don't trust me." He's stopped trying to get victories on these plays, instead just settling for a draw, getting the ball in while still in Drexel's possession.
What about the use it or lose it timeout that he takes before halftime? Sit in the DAC for that and fans and administrators alike don't even seem to know which team will end up with the last shot, let alone worry about Drexel scoring it.
In the 09-10 season, I ran the numbers on Drexel's play coming out of every called timeout on offense. All of those involved inbounds plays. All of those involved a timeout. So how bad was the end result? It wasn't. Don't get too excited, it wasn't good either, but the numbers over that season essentially showed the exact same offense in terms of points per possession coming out of a timeout then if they hadn't called one at all. It's a draw, or at least it was that season. Maybe you don't want to see Bru call one against Shaka Smart where the other team may get an advantage, but against Monte Ross or Pat Kennedy, call timeouts all day Bru! They're essentially meaningless (and are best saved for when a player is trapped in a corner/on the floor or looking to inbound and needs a bailout).
So if Bru's timeouts are meaningless and the inbounds plays arent actually the worst thing ever, why do fans cringe when he calls them? Why do his most ardent supports talk about how good a guy he is and how strongly he recruits just to go quiet once X's and O's are mentioned? The simple answer is selection bias. There's a perception that inbounds should always be succesful, and generally when Bru's have failed they've done so spectacularly and when everyone was watching. It broke the trust that even his supporters had in him, and possibly his own, and now people are looking for the problem and when they see it, they remember it. When they see a standard inbound they don't log it to remember later, but when the failures happen they do. Call it selection bias, call it reputation, call it being Philly fans, but people are looking for the worst now and remembering it when it happens because it has happened when all the lights were on him.
The purpose of the above wasn't to destroy nor to advance that narrative. It was to show an example where a fan or an administrator's eyes may lie to themselves a bit, akin to looking for a VW Bus still on the road. Haven't seen one in a while have you? Now start keeping your eyes open and see how many you find. Heck, I even found a Prius in Nascar country this weekend. Psych 101, right? (You tell me, Dr. Zilmer).
The reason for this exersize, besides hopefully poking the staff into running an inbounds play that has the possibility of scoring again? The guards don't pass to our big men in the paint. It's just bad. Freddie Wilson did on his first career drive as a Dragon and it created an easy basket. Other teams are never going to front DU's guys since they don't need to. Samme Givens, teams had to deal with. Dartaye Ruffin and Daryl McCoy? Not so much. Neither guy could hit a free throw. Daryl turned the ball over 25% of the time last year in his best season as a Dragon. By the end of the season, the offense may as well have been three on five. In Richmond, the McCoy/Ruffin/Abif trio combined for 12 shot attempts (24%) , the guards for 37 (76%).
This season, the big men have played well. The turnovers are way down, they're shooting 55% as a unit, and Abif has even gotten to the line and shot free throws at a very strong rate. Dartaye Ruffin has missed 11 shots this year, and Drexel has gotten the offensive rebound on 7 of those 11. He has shot the ball 31 times this year and 27 of those have ended with a positive result. That's mind boggling. I think Rodney Williams will be special by the time his career here at Drexel is over, and Mohamed Bah is 3 of 4 both from the field and the line. This is not last years frontcourt.
The foursome of bigs have shot the ball 95 times this year (18%). The guards have shot the ball 437 times (82%). Tavon Allen has taken more shots, 113, than the entire frontcourt combined. Somehow the frontcourt has gotten better on the offensive end, possibly much better, and yet the guards are still seeing them like they saw last years frontcourt. They're acting like they don't trust them, ignoring the post ups and not feeding the beast. Just as fans remember the worst of Bru's timeouts, it appears as if Bru's guards are remembering the terrible hands batting passes out of bounds from last years bigs.
Changing perception can be very hard once it's embedded in people. Bru badly needs a couple of dunks or drawn up wide open three pointers to go in off of a quick inbounds play. Even though that may not alter the seasonal statistics, it may just get people saying "wow, look at those changes he's making" just like throwing ten minutes of zone did earlier this season. In that same spirit, the big men need to have a big game, put them on the map and restore the confidence in the guards eyes. They need to see a mismatch, demand the ball and score it and be able to do so loudly.
That's why their struggling in the Davidson game hurts so badly. They had a ton of size and athleticism on those guys, but they didn't out rebound them and they missed more shots than they have in any game all season. It was a letdown game, and the bigs were the letdown, in a spot where they really could have done themselves a ton of good in their teammates eyes. The frontcourt players won't get that opportunity in the upcoming St. Joe's game, but at home against Buffalo and Saint Francis thereafter it would be great news both for the forwards and the team overall if the coaches put the bigmen in a position to put on a show and really highlight to their teammates how much better they are this year. Doing so could bring balance, and balance only makes this edition of the Dragon's that much better.
~Ralph Waldo Emerson
Monday, December 16, 2013
Davidson - The Happy Recap - Winning a Duel
Final: Drexel 72, Davidson 58 at Belk Arena
Player of the Game: Frantz Massenat
Key to the game: The hot hand - the good DU 50% from threeNext Game: Wed, Dec 18 @ Saint Joseph's University
File this one under a win is a win. Going into this game, the thought was that a 14 point win would have been a cause for significant celebration, yet today the joy in Mudville is less than full. Remember the thought that this Drexel team would be hard to beat when they started shooting? Well they shot somewhere between well and very well in this game against a team that needs to shoot to survive and couldn't hit water from a boat. Yet with six minutes to go, it was a six point game.
No, this game never felt in doubt, despite the Davidson crowd willing their team into it, referee/self designated pacemaker Ray Natili's taking over of all things off the ball, or the text that landed on my cellphone with six minutes to go: "you nervous?" I wasn't nervous, because I was rooting for the bigger, stonger, faster, better shooting team and the Davidson fans around me were most definitely not. They were down their best two scorers and they seemed lucky when their shots landed in the town of Davidson, much less a basket therein.
How was this game close? Credit Bob McKillop for having his team prepared. They were making cuts on Drexel's inbounds plays almost before the Dragon players were. Drexel didn't score a win on the boards, when they should have owned the boards against a team with a lack of athleticism and size. For the first time since the Arizona game, Drexel turned the ball over more than their opponent. Credit to Brian Sullivan of Davidson who led the Wildcats in scoring, but helped the Dragons by showing the shot selection of Myley Cyrus at the end of a binge drinking marathon.
Fear not, there's good news too. This was a letdown spot game, looking ahead to Saint Joe's and playing against a weakened team without their best player(s). Drexel was called for 27 fouls and had their depth tested (more on that later). The Dragons still took care of business, retained the shooting stroke that they found against Tennessee State and led from start to finish. While there will be plenty for Bru and Crew to review during the postgame film study at the end of the day it was a double digit win, in a spot where previous Drexel teams would have had a dogfight.
More good news for the Dragons: Freddie Wilson made his first appearance in Blue and Gold, and represented everything that was expected of him. He can flat out score and his defense is what can generously be called "suspect". In a lot of ways, his game represents a lot of what Damion Lee's did, even though Wilson is a different type of player. What Damion does with size and strength Wilson does with speed and quick hands. Comparing quickness to the Davidson defense may not be a great scale to grade on, but Freddie's quickness both with his feet and hands seemed exceptional, and he showed off "in the gym range" and a willingness to go to the rack, the two biggest holes that were left when the Dragons went from Lee to Tavon Allen at the three. Wilson had a very nice assist on his first drive, dare i say it, feeding a big man (more on that tomorrow) and shot faked every time he caught the ball, always looking to create. With his skillset, if he ever keeps his man within five feet of him on defense, he could be a really good defensive player as well. The Draongs have a much smaller lineup when Freddie is in and Allen is on the bench so look for the staff to go offense/defense with this a bit at times this year, as they enjoy the flexibility and depth that Freddie will provide them.
If Freddie Wilson was a spark, the constantly burning fire was Frantz Massenat. For the second straight game Frantz put's up a great and efficient line, this time 25 points on only 10 field goal attempts. He finished off Davidson at the foul line, going 5/6 from the charity stripe in the final minute all of which combined to be good enough to overlook his 3 turnovers in the game and earn the blogs Player of the Game nomination. He filled out the stat sheet with 7 boards, 2 steals and 2, yes 2, blocks.
Say it with me now: This team is good. They may not have shown off the fundamentals in Belk Arena, but the shooting and perimeter defense bailed them out. Once again it has to be said, when this team puts it all together, look out. Not to preview the next game too soon or hint too much, but I wouldn't want to be a Hawk right now.
On a personal note, I got to take in this game with Gary Moore (and son) of CollegeHardwood.com which was a treat, and alongside three of my Drexel housemates who now live in the Charlotte area. Having them around made this game an absolute treat for me, and easily worth the drive. If you ever get a chance to travel, to see some Drexel hoop and spend time with the best people out there, Drexel people, don't ever pass it up.
Credit also to to Davidson U, sometimes you walk into a gym and know that a program is doing things the right way. I've gotten that feeling before at places like VCU, Belmont and UVA and I'm adding Davidson to that list. Belk is a great place to see a game.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at the Dragon forwards performance to date in a little more detail before previewing the big SJU tilt either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Have a great week and let the buildup begin Dragons fans, we're off to slay the Hawk!
Player of the Game: Frantz Massenat
Key to the game: The hot hand - the good DU 50% from threeNext Game: Wed, Dec 18 @ Saint Joseph's University
File this one under a win is a win. Going into this game, the thought was that a 14 point win would have been a cause for significant celebration, yet today the joy in Mudville is less than full. Remember the thought that this Drexel team would be hard to beat when they started shooting? Well they shot somewhere between well and very well in this game against a team that needs to shoot to survive and couldn't hit water from a boat. Yet with six minutes to go, it was a six point game.
No, this game never felt in doubt, despite the Davidson crowd willing their team into it, referee/self designated pacemaker Ray Natili's taking over of all things off the ball, or the text that landed on my cellphone with six minutes to go: "you nervous?" I wasn't nervous, because I was rooting for the bigger, stonger, faster, better shooting team and the Davidson fans around me were most definitely not. They were down their best two scorers and they seemed lucky when their shots landed in the town of Davidson, much less a basket therein.
How was this game close? Credit Bob McKillop for having his team prepared. They were making cuts on Drexel's inbounds plays almost before the Dragon players were. Drexel didn't score a win on the boards, when they should have owned the boards against a team with a lack of athleticism and size. For the first time since the Arizona game, Drexel turned the ball over more than their opponent. Credit to Brian Sullivan of Davidson who led the Wildcats in scoring, but helped the Dragons by showing the shot selection of Myley Cyrus at the end of a binge drinking marathon.
Fear not, there's good news too. This was a letdown spot game, looking ahead to Saint Joe's and playing against a weakened team without their best player(s). Drexel was called for 27 fouls and had their depth tested (more on that later). The Dragons still took care of business, retained the shooting stroke that they found against Tennessee State and led from start to finish. While there will be plenty for Bru and Crew to review during the postgame film study at the end of the day it was a double digit win, in a spot where previous Drexel teams would have had a dogfight.
More good news for the Dragons: Freddie Wilson made his first appearance in Blue and Gold, and represented everything that was expected of him. He can flat out score and his defense is what can generously be called "suspect". In a lot of ways, his game represents a lot of what Damion Lee's did, even though Wilson is a different type of player. What Damion does with size and strength Wilson does with speed and quick hands. Comparing quickness to the Davidson defense may not be a great scale to grade on, but Freddie's quickness both with his feet and hands seemed exceptional, and he showed off "in the gym range" and a willingness to go to the rack, the two biggest holes that were left when the Dragons went from Lee to Tavon Allen at the three. Wilson had a very nice assist on his first drive, dare i say it, feeding a big man (more on that tomorrow) and shot faked every time he caught the ball, always looking to create. With his skillset, if he ever keeps his man within five feet of him on defense, he could be a really good defensive player as well. The Draongs have a much smaller lineup when Freddie is in and Allen is on the bench so look for the staff to go offense/defense with this a bit at times this year, as they enjoy the flexibility and depth that Freddie will provide them.
If Freddie Wilson was a spark, the constantly burning fire was Frantz Massenat. For the second straight game Frantz put's up a great and efficient line, this time 25 points on only 10 field goal attempts. He finished off Davidson at the foul line, going 5/6 from the charity stripe in the final minute all of which combined to be good enough to overlook his 3 turnovers in the game and earn the blogs Player of the Game nomination. He filled out the stat sheet with 7 boards, 2 steals and 2, yes 2, blocks.
Say it with me now: This team is good. They may not have shown off the fundamentals in Belk Arena, but the shooting and perimeter defense bailed them out. Once again it has to be said, when this team puts it all together, look out. Not to preview the next game too soon or hint too much, but I wouldn't want to be a Hawk right now.
On a personal note, I got to take in this game with Gary Moore (and son) of CollegeHardwood.com which was a treat, and alongside three of my Drexel housemates who now live in the Charlotte area. Having them around made this game an absolute treat for me, and easily worth the drive. If you ever get a chance to travel, to see some Drexel hoop and spend time with the best people out there, Drexel people, don't ever pass it up.
Credit also to to Davidson U, sometimes you walk into a gym and know that a program is doing things the right way. I've gotten that feeling before at places like VCU, Belmont and UVA and I'm adding Davidson to that list. Belk is a great place to see a game.
Tomorrow we'll take a look at the Dragon forwards performance to date in a little more detail before previewing the big SJU tilt either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Have a great week and let the buildup begin Dragons fans, we're off to slay the Hawk!
Friday, December 13, 2013
Davidson Pregame - Hey, I Heard This Is a Wild One
Basketball is already a hard enough game to predict, but to preview this game with any sense of certainty seems a fools errand. Drexel gets Freddie Wilson on the court in game action for the first time in this game and comments from the coaching staff seem to infer that he'll see plenty of action. Customarily, Bruiser hasn't let guys start in their returns from injury or first game off of a transfer so I don't expect Freddie to start, but the addition will give Bru an opportunity for a quicker hook with any of his guards that he may be dissatisfied with. Historically, that means Chris Fouch and Chris Fouch alone will have a short leash.
On the other side of the court, De'mon Brooks has been out for the Wildcats with a knee sprain, and may return this game. He was supposedly questionable for Davidson's contest this Wednesday before appearing in street clothes come warmups. There's not a lot out there at this point on his current status, but there's a report that two weeks ago the Davidson radio personnel estimated at 1-2 weeks until the Preseason SoCon Player of the Year returned. Adding this up and it's easy to think that there's a better than 50/50 likelihood that he sees some minutes in this game. De'mon is a high motor big man with skills who could cause fits for the relatively young Drexel frontcourt.
Regardless of Brooks' status, Drexel will need to watch out for Tyler Kalinoski, a stone cold shooter who picks his spots well. He's not a high volume scorer but he's efficient and if his defender naps on him for a play, he'll get burned. The volume shooter is point guard Brian Sullivan who will hopefully have some problems dealing with the size of Frantz Massenat who should be his mark for the afternoon. Sullivan does his best work from the foul line and so Frantz' primary responsibility should be just staying in front of him.
The defensive numbers for Davidson as a team don't look good, but they're significantly hurt by their opponents shooting over 40% against them from three this year. Expect regression from that number throughout the rest of the season and the Wildcats will look like a better defensive squad later in the season, especially when they play a soft SoCon schedule.
Still think Davidson is a pushover based off of their Brooks-less Niagara loss? Well here's the complete list of teams they lost to at home in the prior two seasons to this one: Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Charlotte. They defend Belk Arena like Drexel defends the DAC and they do it well. If the Dragons get caught looking ahead to St. Joe's when they're playing a hungry team coming off of a bad loss, they won't just lose, they'll lose badly. This is another game that previous years Drexel teams lose, and will be a test for this years edition to prove they are not your classic Flint team. Since they've passed every other test, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here.
Prediction: Drexel 74 - Davidson 70
Vegas Line: Drexel -1
On the other side of the court, De'mon Brooks has been out for the Wildcats with a knee sprain, and may return this game. He was supposedly questionable for Davidson's contest this Wednesday before appearing in street clothes come warmups. There's not a lot out there at this point on his current status, but there's a report that two weeks ago the Davidson radio personnel estimated at 1-2 weeks until the Preseason SoCon Player of the Year returned. Adding this up and it's easy to think that there's a better than 50/50 likelihood that he sees some minutes in this game. De'mon is a high motor big man with skills who could cause fits for the relatively young Drexel frontcourt.
Regardless of Brooks' status, Drexel will need to watch out for Tyler Kalinoski, a stone cold shooter who picks his spots well. He's not a high volume scorer but he's efficient and if his defender naps on him for a play, he'll get burned. The volume shooter is point guard Brian Sullivan who will hopefully have some problems dealing with the size of Frantz Massenat who should be his mark for the afternoon. Sullivan does his best work from the foul line and so Frantz' primary responsibility should be just staying in front of him.
The defensive numbers for Davidson as a team don't look good, but they're significantly hurt by their opponents shooting over 40% against them from three this year. Expect regression from that number throughout the rest of the season and the Wildcats will look like a better defensive squad later in the season, especially when they play a soft SoCon schedule.
Still think Davidson is a pushover based off of their Brooks-less Niagara loss? Well here's the complete list of teams they lost to at home in the prior two seasons to this one: Vanderbilt, Wichita State, Charlotte. They defend Belk Arena like Drexel defends the DAC and they do it well. If the Dragons get caught looking ahead to St. Joe's when they're playing a hungry team coming off of a bad loss, they won't just lose, they'll lose badly. This is another game that previous years Drexel teams lose, and will be a test for this years edition to prove they are not your classic Flint team. Since they've passed every other test, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt here.
Prediction: Drexel 74 - Davidson 70
Vegas Line: Drexel -1
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Mailbag: The First Edition
As a thank you to those who have taken the time to read this blog, I wanted to take some questions and spend some time to track down and research answers for anyone who took the time to submit them. While thanking the readers I also want to specifically thank commenter phlduzp. I'm still getting used to the back end for this site and didn't see your comment for a couple of days, so apologies for getting it up late. As I continue to get used to the day to day of this monster I will get better with that, along with little things like the quality and content of the writing. Without further ado, here are a selection of your questions:
OK Mr Stats guy. We know that Ball State played back to back 3OT games back in 2000. Has any team in NCAA Basketball history ever won back to back 3OT games before Drexel's feat last week? I want to know if Drexel's accomplishment was truly historic?
I cheated on this one, but ESPN Stats and Information says that no one has ever won back to back triple OT games. In the future, all teams that win in 3OT will be going for a Drexel in their next game. This will hopefully spur on the next big advertisement campaign: "Drexel Hoops: Take us to triple OT, Get Squashed"
How many points in the paint do we have that wasn't by a guard or a put back of a rebound? Do they even keep track of that?
The short answer is, I'm sure that information is available to the coaching staff. The long answer is that the holiday season and endless travel has kept me from undertaking a project I've really wanted to do, which is shot chart all the Drexel games. If anyone from DU wants to offer a token of peace, getting that information would be invaluable to the blog. If not... eh, I'll get there eventually.
Leaving no stone un-turned, I have dug through some available stats on this and give or take a basket from Kazembe that was deemed a jumper, DU's frontcourt has made 62 points (7.75ppg) this season in the paint, not including putbacks.
I would also like to nominate nicknaming the frontcourt "BWAR", as in be ready for war. Also conveniently an acronym for Bah, William, Abif and Ruffin.
Super thanks to Mike Tuberosa and his staff. Many moons ago I was bugging him weekly for extra stat sheets than those that were available through the website. Now everything is up there, from points in the paint to play by play's to lead changes. It's a real value add to DrexelDragons.com for this year and I encourage everyone to check it out.
Which Virginia team will win the CAA?
Always a great question. The cop out answer is Towson, since the tourney is in Baltimore and they're the home team* (they can't walk there, so there's that) this year. But you asked for a Virginia school, and the ole Jagerbomb is still the commish, so lets be honest, it'll be a Virginia school. James Madison has been awful, the worst secret in the league is that their AD has been wanting to fire their coach since the Phillies were good, and not even Andre Nation is likely to bring them back (although Nation is exactly what the doctor ordered for that turnover prone road ragged team).
So by default, the winner is: William and Mary! Tony Shaver's Ivy league All Star Team is studying their way to wins these days. Their best win may be at Rutgers, but I love the way they've adjusted to the rule changes and they have real players in Thornton and Beasthoven. Congrats W+M on breaking the drought!
What was your favorite Drexel hoops trip?
I was asked that question earlier this year as well, by a ranking Drexel Athletics executive. At the time I said the Albuquerque trip for the NCAA's for the womens team. Me and some others paid our way onto the Athletics charter for that, and the weekend crashing the hotel with the team, staff, spirit groups, and alumni was fantastic. If I had to limit it to the mens trips, it would have to be the Bashir Mason buzzerbeater game. This will surprise many, but I will miss playing VCU in the new CAA, as those games were often epic. I won't miss playing true road games in the CAA tourney.
When will the other shoe drop?
Lets see how Freddie Wilson slides into the rotation. If adding him will help take some of the scoring pressure off of Tavon and help him settle down, this team becomes very scary again. Right now, with current health, I don't see anything on either the eye test side or the statistical side that sees another shoe in sight. Have no fear, they still won't be able to inbound, nor will they ever take the other team by surprise, but they've become all that Bru has ever asked of his teams: Good at what they do. Pray for health and the return of Chris Fouch's hot hand, but going into the Wilson addition, there's no other shoe in sight. Start getting adjusted to rooting for the first really good, potentially elite, basketball team at Drexel since... well probably since two years ago... but before that, since Malik.
Thanks to everyone for the questions. I'll be looking to do this at least monthly through the season, and possibly more often if the questions/comments keep flowing in. Tomorrow: A Drexel/Davidson preview prior to Sunday's Freddie Wilson unveiling.
OK Mr Stats guy. We know that Ball State played back to back 3OT games back in 2000. Has any team in NCAA Basketball history ever won back to back 3OT games before Drexel's feat last week? I want to know if Drexel's accomplishment was truly historic?
I cheated on this one, but ESPN Stats and Information says that no one has ever won back to back triple OT games. In the future, all teams that win in 3OT will be going for a Drexel in their next game. This will hopefully spur on the next big advertisement campaign: "Drexel Hoops: Take us to triple OT, Get Squashed"
How many points in the paint do we have that wasn't by a guard or a put back of a rebound? Do they even keep track of that?
The short answer is, I'm sure that information is available to the coaching staff. The long answer is that the holiday season and endless travel has kept me from undertaking a project I've really wanted to do, which is shot chart all the Drexel games. If anyone from DU wants to offer a token of peace, getting that information would be invaluable to the blog. If not... eh, I'll get there eventually.
Leaving no stone un-turned, I have dug through some available stats on this and give or take a basket from Kazembe that was deemed a jumper, DU's frontcourt has made 62 points (7.75ppg) this season in the paint, not including putbacks.
I would also like to nominate nicknaming the frontcourt "BWAR", as in be ready for war. Also conveniently an acronym for Bah, William, Abif and Ruffin.
Super thanks to Mike Tuberosa and his staff. Many moons ago I was bugging him weekly for extra stat sheets than those that were available through the website. Now everything is up there, from points in the paint to play by play's to lead changes. It's a real value add to DrexelDragons.com for this year and I encourage everyone to check it out.
Which Virginia team will win the CAA?
Always a great question. The cop out answer is Towson, since the tourney is in Baltimore and they're the home team* (they can't walk there, so there's that) this year. But you asked for a Virginia school, and the ole Jagerbomb is still the commish, so lets be honest, it'll be a Virginia school. James Madison has been awful, the worst secret in the league is that their AD has been wanting to fire their coach since the Phillies were good, and not even Andre Nation is likely to bring them back (although Nation is exactly what the doctor ordered for that turnover prone road ragged team).
So by default, the winner is: William and Mary! Tony Shaver's Ivy league All Star Team is studying their way to wins these days. Their best win may be at Rutgers, but I love the way they've adjusted to the rule changes and they have real players in Thornton and Beasthoven. Congrats W+M on breaking the drought!
What was your favorite Drexel hoops trip?
I was asked that question earlier this year as well, by a ranking Drexel Athletics executive. At the time I said the Albuquerque trip for the NCAA's for the womens team. Me and some others paid our way onto the Athletics charter for that, and the weekend crashing the hotel with the team, staff, spirit groups, and alumni was fantastic. If I had to limit it to the mens trips, it would have to be the Bashir Mason buzzerbeater game. This will surprise many, but I will miss playing VCU in the new CAA, as those games were often epic. I won't miss playing true road games in the CAA tourney.
When will the other shoe drop?
Lets see how Freddie Wilson slides into the rotation. If adding him will help take some of the scoring pressure off of Tavon and help him settle down, this team becomes very scary again. Right now, with current health, I don't see anything on either the eye test side or the statistical side that sees another shoe in sight. Have no fear, they still won't be able to inbound, nor will they ever take the other team by surprise, but they've become all that Bru has ever asked of his teams: Good at what they do. Pray for health and the return of Chris Fouch's hot hand, but going into the Wilson addition, there's no other shoe in sight. Start getting adjusted to rooting for the first really good, potentially elite, basketball team at Drexel since... well probably since two years ago... but before that, since Malik.
Thanks to everyone for the questions. I'll be looking to do this at least monthly through the season, and possibly more often if the questions/comments keep flowing in. Tomorrow: A Drexel/Davidson preview prior to Sunday's Freddie Wilson unveiling.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
News and Notes - Freddie's a Bonehead
News and notes surrounding the Dragons:
--Freddie Wilson will play in his first game for the Dragons Sunday at Davidson. A scorer who I expect to backup Fouch and snag some minutes in a smaller DU lineup at the 3, he'll be a welcome addition to a club who has gone 3-0 while "shorthanded" and playing a four guard roster. While there is reason for excitement, keep in mind his previous coach, Kevin Willard's words: "Freddie's a [bonehead] and Freddie's going to pay for it," along with Bruiser's prior use of transfers before you expect Freddie to be the Dragons savior. A useful contributor will be plenty, and a fine addition.
--The streak is now at three games: Drexel has scored 100% of the time when they pass the ball to Dartaye Ruffin and he shoots it. All of the shots that havent gone in have either featured called fouls or offensive boards that ended in points. Dartaye is now up to a 72% effective field goal percentage, good for 17th in the country.
--Box out! The Dragons are 25th in the country in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to only grab 26% of their missed shots. Stunningly, the 25th ranking is their worst ranking in the last 4 years. Don't come into Daryl or Dartaye's house and expect to leave with the ball.
Conversely, the offensive rebound percentage has taken a considerable step back since the Givens' era (surprising no one, as Samme's dominance is nearly impossible to replace). Kaz Abif is doing well, and I don't believe Ruffin's the problem here. Tough to pile on the guy, but Chris Fouch is currently outrebounding 6'7" Tavon Allen. This seems to feed into the storyline of Allen shying away from contact and the paint. With the skills Allen has, the sooner he can get comfortable playing in the paint a bit, the much, much better the Dragons will be.
--Dueces Wild: For the first time in five years the Dragons have no one shooting under 40% from 2. That's akin to saying that all of the hitters in a baseball lineup are hitting at least .200, as 40% from 2 is pretty terrible. Getting the entire team above that line is a noteable accomplishment for the Flint offenses, and with the distance shooting being so poor, the 2 point shooting and lack of turnovers is the reason why the Dragons offense is currently top 100.
--In the 2011-12 season where DU ripped off 19 straight wins en route to their first deep NIT run of the Flint tenure, the Dragons averaged a 10 year high 108.8 points per possession (ppp), good for 49th in the country. This years team, against superior competition to date, has averaged 107.5 ppp. That number is without Wilson, and with Fouch and Allen shooting 30% 22% from distance respectively. Outside of the UCLA and Arizona games they have yet to have under 104 ppp in a game. utside of that 11-12 season, 104 would be a season high since Phil Goss was playing for DU. This year its an outside the top 25 season low. These guys are good.
--Chris Fouch will not end the year shooting 30% from three. As goes Fouch, so will go the Dragon offense.
--With the guards taking 79% of the shots thus far this year, no one has any idea what the forwards are capable of. Currently Abif, Ruffin, Williams and Bah have combined to hit an outstanding 58% of their shots, but with the majority being tip ins and dunks its still an incomplete data set. Look to see if the staff challenges the forwards to find out what they have before conference season starts. Much like the Cleveland State game was a game that could be used to help the three shooters get right, perhaps the St. Francis or Buffalo games can be used to challenge the bigs.
--The Big Three: With Frantz (top 400 in assist rate, fouls created, fouls drawn and free throw rate) and ruffin (top 400 in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, defensive rebound percentage, and free throw rate) doing their things, if the Dragons can get that third player to step up, they should continue to be a consistently good team against any level of competition.
--One more time: As goes Fouch, so will the Dragons. I'd put my money on Fouch.
Look out CAA, these guys are good.
--Freddie Wilson will play in his first game for the Dragons Sunday at Davidson. A scorer who I expect to backup Fouch and snag some minutes in a smaller DU lineup at the 3, he'll be a welcome addition to a club who has gone 3-0 while "shorthanded" and playing a four guard roster. While there is reason for excitement, keep in mind his previous coach, Kevin Willard's words: "Freddie's a [bonehead] and Freddie's going to pay for it," along with Bruiser's prior use of transfers before you expect Freddie to be the Dragons savior. A useful contributor will be plenty, and a fine addition.
--The streak is now at three games: Drexel has scored 100% of the time when they pass the ball to Dartaye Ruffin and he shoots it. All of the shots that havent gone in have either featured called fouls or offensive boards that ended in points. Dartaye is now up to a 72% effective field goal percentage, good for 17th in the country.
--Box out! The Dragons are 25th in the country in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to only grab 26% of their missed shots. Stunningly, the 25th ranking is their worst ranking in the last 4 years. Don't come into Daryl or Dartaye's house and expect to leave with the ball.
Conversely, the offensive rebound percentage has taken a considerable step back since the Givens' era (surprising no one, as Samme's dominance is nearly impossible to replace). Kaz Abif is doing well, and I don't believe Ruffin's the problem here. Tough to pile on the guy, but Chris Fouch is currently outrebounding 6'7" Tavon Allen. This seems to feed into the storyline of Allen shying away from contact and the paint. With the skills Allen has, the sooner he can get comfortable playing in the paint a bit, the much, much better the Dragons will be.
--Dueces Wild: For the first time in five years the Dragons have no one shooting under 40% from 2. That's akin to saying that all of the hitters in a baseball lineup are hitting at least .200, as 40% from 2 is pretty terrible. Getting the entire team above that line is a noteable accomplishment for the Flint offenses, and with the distance shooting being so poor, the 2 point shooting and lack of turnovers is the reason why the Dragons offense is currently top 100.
--In the 2011-12 season where DU ripped off 19 straight wins en route to their first deep NIT run of the Flint tenure, the Dragons averaged a 10 year high 108.8 points per possession (ppp), good for 49th in the country. This years team, against superior competition to date, has averaged 107.5 ppp. That number is without Wilson, and with Fouch and Allen shooting 30% 22% from distance respectively. Outside of the UCLA and Arizona games they have yet to have under 104 ppp in a game. utside of that 11-12 season, 104 would be a season high since Phil Goss was playing for DU. This year its an outside the top 25 season low. These guys are good.
--Chris Fouch will not end the year shooting 30% from three. As goes Fouch, so will go the Dragon offense.
--With the guards taking 79% of the shots thus far this year, no one has any idea what the forwards are capable of. Currently Abif, Ruffin, Williams and Bah have combined to hit an outstanding 58% of their shots, but with the majority being tip ins and dunks its still an incomplete data set. Look to see if the staff challenges the forwards to find out what they have before conference season starts. Much like the Cleveland State game was a game that could be used to help the three shooters get right, perhaps the St. Francis or Buffalo games can be used to challenge the bigs.
--The Big Three: With Frantz (top 400 in assist rate, fouls created, fouls drawn and free throw rate) and ruffin (top 400 in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebound percentage, defensive rebound percentage, and free throw rate) doing their things, if the Dragons can get that third player to step up, they should continue to be a consistently good team against any level of competition.
--One more time: As goes Fouch, so will the Dragons. I'd put my money on Fouch.
Look out CAA, these guys are good.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Tenessee State - The Happy Recap - Taking Care of Business
Final: Drexel 75, Tennessee St 61 @ The DAC (no overtimes!)
Player of the Game: Frantz Massenat
Key to the game: Happy Learned to Shoot
Next Game: Sun, Dec 15 @ Davidson University
In a business trip of a homegame, the Dragons showed up and cleaned up the garbage. With all apologies to Tennessee State, they're a team that good teams need to be able to walk over without an electrifying performance at home, and that's what Drexel did. With the possible exception of Tavon Allen, everyone from the Dragons had a good game and no one had a great one.
The blogs player of the game, Frantz Massent put up an efficient 21 point and 6 assist line to earn him the honor, but even that line isn't as good as it looks when you realize that he was a primary defender of the Tigers Patrick Miller who put up 21 points himself. Miller and MJ Rhett played a mean 1-2 game for periods of the second half, seeming to score at will at times. Even during those periods the Dragons were in control of this one from cover to cover.
Ken Pomeroy's in game win probability, which accounts for the current score and time remaining along with how it ranked the teams coming into the game shows that the Dragons were never less than a 93.8% shot to win this game. As long as they took care of business it didn't much matter with what TSU threw at them, TSU brought a knife to a gunfight. The encouraging thing for Drexel fans should be the way that DU brought this home. For the second straight game they were a dominant force on the boards, evidenced by having more offensive boards than the Tigers had total rebounds in the first half. The Dragons continued to show care with the ball, while they turned it over 5 times in the first half, they responded with only 2 in the second half to secure the game.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign was the shooting. The home side hit 58% from inside the arc and 38% from outside. The 38% is by no means lighting the world on fire, but from a team that has really struggled from deep this year, it was a chance to see the ball go through the net a bit and get some confidence back. When this team is right, they'll be averaging 35% or so from 3, in the prior three contest the Dragons had averaged 21%. This was an opportunity to get right while at home, and seeing Chris Fouch shoot 36% from 3 may not blow anyones doors off, but it's a start towards getting right as we enter into exam week when the team will get a few days off and the challenges both in the classroom and the locker room will be mental and not physical.
Going off of the Caazone.com boards, it's known that the elephant in the room is Tavon Allen. While While discussing adjustments the Dragons needed to make for the new rule changes, going into the Arizona game, it was mentioned that Tavon's early shooting was probably more fluke then predictive. It shows the difference between reading a stat sheet and watching the game, and why the best coaches use both. Tavon's shot selection issues are highlighted even more since he is now taking a shocking 31.8% of the Dragons shots when he is on the floor, which is the 64th highest rate in the country. It's a rate expected to be seen from only the stars of the game. Chris Fouch is actually shooting even more often, shooting 32.7% of the shots taken when he is on the floor, but the shot selection is vastly different, and reflected in their shooting numbers. Even with Chris not having his stroke from distance going strong early in the year, he's still been a net positive this year when shooting the rock since he's done so well from inside the arc (a Drexel guard leading 51%). Fouch has also gotten to the line 24% more often then Allen has.
Someone asked me if Tavon was going to be this years Derrick Thomas for me, a player that I thought Flint & Co gave too much court time to and didn't have the offensive skills to back it up. I 100% disagree with this assessment, because Tavon has the skills. With the welcoming of Freddie Wilson, Bru now has three options: Let Tavon keep doing what he's been doing, tell him that he's a big boy and he needs to take some contact and stop shooting jumpers or head to the bench, or tell him to be more selective and pass more and see the bench. Either of the second two seem to make the Dragons a much better team, so look intently over the next few games and see what direction the staff chooses to go in.
In the upcoming week we'll have daily posts while they're knocking down those exams. The next couple of days will have some breakdowns on the team to date and going forward before a mailbag Thursday and the Davidson preview on Friday. Please throw me questions for the mailbag at DragonsSpeaks@gmail.com, and have some fun with it. I'll try to research and tackle anything that gets submitted with enough leadtime to properly research while I duck in and out of Christmas parties all week.
Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season, and a 6-2 Drexel start.
Player of the Game: Frantz Massenat
Key to the game: Happy Learned to Shoot
Next Game: Sun, Dec 15 @ Davidson University
In a business trip of a homegame, the Dragons showed up and cleaned up the garbage. With all apologies to Tennessee State, they're a team that good teams need to be able to walk over without an electrifying performance at home, and that's what Drexel did. With the possible exception of Tavon Allen, everyone from the Dragons had a good game and no one had a great one.
The blogs player of the game, Frantz Massent put up an efficient 21 point and 6 assist line to earn him the honor, but even that line isn't as good as it looks when you realize that he was a primary defender of the Tigers Patrick Miller who put up 21 points himself. Miller and MJ Rhett played a mean 1-2 game for periods of the second half, seeming to score at will at times. Even during those periods the Dragons were in control of this one from cover to cover.
Ken Pomeroy's in game win probability, which accounts for the current score and time remaining along with how it ranked the teams coming into the game shows that the Dragons were never less than a 93.8% shot to win this game. As long as they took care of business it didn't much matter with what TSU threw at them, TSU brought a knife to a gunfight. The encouraging thing for Drexel fans should be the way that DU brought this home. For the second straight game they were a dominant force on the boards, evidenced by having more offensive boards than the Tigers had total rebounds in the first half. The Dragons continued to show care with the ball, while they turned it over 5 times in the first half, they responded with only 2 in the second half to secure the game.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign was the shooting. The home side hit 58% from inside the arc and 38% from outside. The 38% is by no means lighting the world on fire, but from a team that has really struggled from deep this year, it was a chance to see the ball go through the net a bit and get some confidence back. When this team is right, they'll be averaging 35% or so from 3, in the prior three contest the Dragons had averaged 21%. This was an opportunity to get right while at home, and seeing Chris Fouch shoot 36% from 3 may not blow anyones doors off, but it's a start towards getting right as we enter into exam week when the team will get a few days off and the challenges both in the classroom and the locker room will be mental and not physical.
Going off of the Caazone.com boards, it's known that the elephant in the room is Tavon Allen. While While discussing adjustments the Dragons needed to make for the new rule changes, going into the Arizona game, it was mentioned that Tavon's early shooting was probably more fluke then predictive. It shows the difference between reading a stat sheet and watching the game, and why the best coaches use both. Tavon's shot selection issues are highlighted even more since he is now taking a shocking 31.8% of the Dragons shots when he is on the floor, which is the 64th highest rate in the country. It's a rate expected to be seen from only the stars of the game. Chris Fouch is actually shooting even more often, shooting 32.7% of the shots taken when he is on the floor, but the shot selection is vastly different, and reflected in their shooting numbers. Even with Chris not having his stroke from distance going strong early in the year, he's still been a net positive this year when shooting the rock since he's done so well from inside the arc (a Drexel guard leading 51%). Fouch has also gotten to the line 24% more often then Allen has.
Someone asked me if Tavon was going to be this years Derrick Thomas for me, a player that I thought Flint & Co gave too much court time to and didn't have the offensive skills to back it up. I 100% disagree with this assessment, because Tavon has the skills. With the welcoming of Freddie Wilson, Bru now has three options: Let Tavon keep doing what he's been doing, tell him that he's a big boy and he needs to take some contact and stop shooting jumpers or head to the bench, or tell him to be more selective and pass more and see the bench. Either of the second two seem to make the Dragons a much better team, so look intently over the next few games and see what direction the staff chooses to go in.
In the upcoming week we'll have daily posts while they're knocking down those exams. The next couple of days will have some breakdowns on the team to date and going forward before a mailbag Thursday and the Davidson preview on Friday. Please throw me questions for the mailbag at DragonsSpeaks@gmail.com, and have some fun with it. I'll try to research and tackle anything that gets submitted with enough leadtime to properly research while I duck in and out of Christmas parties all week.
Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season, and a 6-2 Drexel start.
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