Thursday, January 8, 2015

Towson - Pregame - Now With Bad Words

The Dragons travel to Bill Bateman's The Towson Center SECU Arena, on the campus of Towson University on Thursday to take on a team that is struggling almost as much as the Dragons are.  Prior to their win against Elon the Tigers had lost 6 straight games with the most recent of those against Navy, Fairleigh Dickenson and James Madison, all struggling teams themselves.  Not unlike the DAC, the SECU Center is where struggling teams went to get better.  And while Towson seems to have turned a corner by beating Elon, lets remember that Elon was playing their second road game in two days, shot only 19% from 3 this time, and TU still only won by 4.  A year after starting 4 seniors, the Tigers are a young team that is looking to come together.  Sound like anyone else we know?

 While these teams may end up similar places in the standings, they will get there through completely different routes.  While the Dragons have being playing with 4 guards, working on ball control and launching up threes, the Tigers are somewhat astoundingly pounding the paint.  A slow and methodical drive and pound the ball offense has led Pat Skerry's bunch to be the #6 offensive rebounding team in the country while being #1 overall nationally at getting to the line.  In short, they are the mirror opposite of the last three Drexel opponents which just has to be good news for the Dragons.  

 And while fans can flip through box scores and see that John Davis is outperforming his role as a sophomore, or that Four McGlynn is being his usual sharp shooting self, this might not be the game for that kind of inside baseball stat hunting.  On Towson's side, it's an opportunity to put back to back wins together, move to 2-1 in conference and gain some confidence before running into the contending teams in the CAA.  They can be satisfied with the win against Elon, or they can show to be confident and hungry for more.  On the Drexel side, it's an even larger opportunity.  It's a chance to show that getting blown out in three straight games at home wasn't as much about lack of talent or problems with this team, but rather it was just a poor matchup against three opponents who play similar perimeter/run and gun styles.

 For his part, Bruiser has two options, the Dragons can stagger forward with the 4 guard set, which against Towson will amount to watching the Tigers shoot the ball, if they miss then watching them rebound the ball, and repeating that until Towson scores, at which point the Dragons can run down take one shot and hope it goes in.  Alternatively, Bru can go back to what he knows.  Full on rock fight, slow paced game with shot clock violations from both sides and the paint looking like a scene from Die Hard.  Given those choices, there's only one choice.

 Yippee ki yay motherfucker.

 Prediction:  Towson 57 - Drexel 56
Vegas Line:  Towson -4.5

Fact of the day:  If the Dragons lose this game, they will drop behind the Sixers in winning percentage. (hat tip, Eric Resnick)

Alan Boston's Notes:  Towson University got behind Pat Skerry. They promised him as much time as he needed to build a program. They built a new arena and new facilities. They are trying to get a piece of the rather large tv pie, that has ruined the game of college basketball. They were almost rewarded last year, as Towson fielded their best team in a very long time. It did not hurt that they got Georgetown transfer Jerrelle Benimon to finish his college career there. He was almost unstoppable, a great college player. He is gone. However Towson had gone from one win in Skerry's first season to a semi final loss in the CAA tournament, eventually accepting a CIT bid. The reward is they now get better recruits. Towson has a young team. They have shown flashes of brilliance, winning all 3 games , including a win over host Monmouth in one of those ridiculous round robin tournaments that allows teams to play more games than the legal limit. It is just another crack in the once solid armor of college hoops. The ivy league is all that is left. They still play Saturdays to allow for the least loss of class time. They still do not allow athletic scholarships. However, since Tommy Amaker brought his Duke recruiting tactics to Cambridge, even the ivies are showing signs of caving in. That is extremely sad.

So here is a team that you would think Drexel can beat. Much like Drexel, Towson is a  young rebuilding program that has had some good and some bad (blowout loss at home to Lasalle, home loss to FDU). But after Drexel's last 3 home games and after listening to Bruiser give some horse shit excuse, "we only have 8 players and 4 are freshman", I would not count on them to beat Philadelphia University Of Sciences.

Towson 80 Drexel 48 

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Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Sometimes you need to take a day and just step back and laugh.  So today, enjoy this collection from some of the messages that I've received over the prior week, then forget DU hoops for a bit.  We'll see you back here tomorrow for the Towson pregame.


To the point:
Once one of our biggest fans, and I really believe he will be again, but DU Athletics has to give all fans a reason to #DUBelieve.  Right now, it's just a hashtag.
The laughter isn't limited to the Philadelphia area:
Telling the tale of the season:
Josh is a good guy, but got a real chuckle out of this one:
If you haven't been following Adam this season, you haven't been following Drexel Basketball:
Best one liner of the week:


Ending with my favorite reply that I've received in some time:







And if you still have a few minutes to burn after gunning through this, check out longtime follower Leon Kauffman  (https://twitter.com/LeonKauffman) for some scenes that will get your mind well away from your desk, and the dumpster fire we call DU.
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Tuesday, January 6, 2015

William and Mary Postgame - Are We Learning From Anything?

Final:  William and Mary 73, Drexel 47

Player of the Game:  Damion Lee
Key to the game:  Defending the three point line
Next Game:  Thursday January 8 @ Towson

"It's tough because you were putting kids in positions that you weren't expecting 
to at the beginning of the year."

That's Bruiser on the CAA Teleconference today.  He's correct.

And that is last time in this post that I am going to call him correct.  Because while he may be playing kids longer minutes than he was expecting, they are also literally playing out of position and no one is putting a gun to Bruiser's head and making him put them on the floor like that.

Playing a four guard set that the team doesn't often practice is foolish.  Instituting it at a time when the team can't practice seems much worse.  Coach Flint is harping and harping on how this team hasn't been able to practice, how they are down to eight men (all while saying his players need to stop talking like that.  Set an example for them, maybe, Coach?) and yet is instituting new schemes, moving his best player to power forward all while they can't practice and adjust to it?  The fans understand that the team can't practice, but maybe then the staff would want to go with a plan that you have previously practiced?  No?  Isn't this the time for making things simple, and dumbing the "playbook" down?  A playbook that wasn't exactly much thicker than "See Spot Run" to begin with?  Why on earth would a time when the team can't practice be the one time to add wrinkles?

Because of the matchups he says.  The Dragons just played against three teams that like to shoot from outside, that like to run and Drexel needs to keep up with them.  Ignoring the fact that those teams still took 22 shots a game from behind the arc even with a more mobile 4 guard "defense" playing against them, since when has Bru cared about the matchups?  When this team stunk up the joint two years ago and the Dragons played run and gun Towson Bru left the not quite mobile McCoy and Ruffin combo out there for over half the game, and never went 4 guard.  Since when did Bru allow other teams tempos and game plans to dictate who he put on the floor?
I was telling Josh Lyman about a friend who just got his pilot’s license. 
He told me the most remarkable thing. He said a new pilot will fly into cloud cover. 
There’ll be no visibility. And they’ll check their gauges, they’ll look at the artificial 
horizon, it’ll show them level, but they won’t trust it. So, they’ll make an 
adjustment and then another and another… He said the number of new pilots 
who fly out of clouds completely upside-down would knock you out. 

~The West Wing

So a guy goes down and Bru has to put in a new point guard.  Another goes down and now he's playing his 2 remaining point guards at the same time.  And on and on we go.  And now we have:

  • The worst Pomeroy rating of Bruiser's career
  • The worst 2pt field goal defense of Bruiser's career
  • The worst 3pt field goal defense of Bruiser's career (and there is no close second)
  •  The next to worst offensive efficiency of any Bruiser team ever
  •  The next to worst offensive rebounding percentage of any Bruiser team ever
  •  Opposing teams are shooting a higher percentage of 3's than they have against any Bru team in the last decade
  • The offense is getting to the foul line less than any team Bruiser has ever had
All while he has at his disposal maybe the most talented player he has ever coached.

This team needs the basics so bad it doesn't even know it.  And yes, they could go with a 3 guard 2 forward set, Tyshawn Myles hasn't been atrocious, and he's been criminally underused while Bru is busy driving his guards into the ground.  Play with what they have actually practiced, what the kids know, and let the other team matchup with Drexel.  Throw some bodies around in the paint, get physical and cover the three point line.  The turnover crisis seems under control but with the four guard set there is now a rebounding epidemic that has seemingly gone unnoticed.  A game after Elon either made the basket or got the offensive board on 68% of their shots, William and Mary did it on 67% of the time.  It's the basketball equivalent of never being able to get your defense off the field.

As good as Marcus Thornton and Tony Shaver are, this game wasn't about William and Mary any more than last game was about Elon.  And that's the take away.

Before conference season Bru said that "From a talent standpoint, if we get it together we'll be fine".  I agreed with that then and I agree with it now.  But you're adjusting the team the wrong way Bru, it needs less wrinkles, not more.  Drexel Men's Basketball is upside down.
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Monday, January 5, 2015

Elon Postgame - Don't Miss The Point

Final:  Elon 77, Drexel 67

Player of the Game:  Damion Lee
Key to the game:  Guarding the perimeter
Next Game:  Monday January 5 vs W&M @ the DAC


This is a bad basketball team.

Going into this game, I told a couple of Drexel fans that we knew DU was mediocre, but we didn't know much beyond that since they had beaten the teams that they should have beaten and lost to the teams that were any good.  I said that if we lost to Elon we would know that this is a bad basketball team.  So, now we know.

Many, including Coach Flint, want to say that the key to the game was the three point shooting in the first half by Elon.  Those that want to make that argument may not be wrong but they're completely missing the underlying point.

Taking a second and granting them the point, lets note this:  Tanner Samson took 10 attempts from long range in this game.  Tanner shoots 80% of his shots each year from 3.  He's the definition of a one trick pony.  Tanner is going to take jump shots from behind the arc, and that's it.  He's not going to drive by anyone.  He's not going to cut to the basket away from the ball.  He's the easiest guy on the court to guard, and it's not close.  In the preview I even said: 

Samson takes 80% of his shots from behind the arc though, so against a man to man defense, as long as his man doesn't leave to help out, there is no reason Samson should threaten the Dragons. 

(In my best Bruiser voice)  Dude took 10 shots.  He was open to shoot the ball 10 times.  (/Bru voice) For perspective, the other player in the conference who just sits outside the 3 point line is Towson's Four McGlynn.  McGlynn took 6 three point shots against the Dragons last year in two games combined.  More perspective: Last year when the Dragons played against the Phoenix in the Preseason NIT, Samson only took 5 shots.  

Samson was left open to shoot the ball 10 times in this game.  There were only 68 possessions in this game!  You're telling me that this guy, who only has one move, was left open to do it on 15% of the possessions?  And you want to give them credit for it?  Last year the Dragons only allowed 22% of the points against them to be scored from three point territory.  This year it's 28%.  

This year's Dragons are jumping off of their man too quickly since they don't trust their teammates to stay in front of theirs, they aren't fighting through screens and they're just plain soft.  Elon hit the shots, give them credit.  The Dragons are the ones that invited them to take the shots though and someone should mention that.

Again, all of that inside baseball misses the much larger, much more important point.  

At tip off of the game only 3 of the 32 President's Suite High Donor seats were occupied.  That total never grew beyond 5.  The games attendance was 1,061, a couple hundred of which were wearing Elon colors.  The Athletics Department will tell you that it was a winter break game, and that's why attendance is so low, or that the team needs to win to draw people (at which point, why do they need a marketing department?)  But we know that the Athletics Department doesn't think they can draw, with or without break.  They gave it away when the DAC was renovated and after this phase of the renovation it remains 321st in Division I in terms of capacity.  

The coaching staff says it will start winning once the DAC is improved or replaced entirely.  The Athletic Director will tell you that renovations will come when the donations come in.  The AD's staff will tell you that the donations will come in once the fan base expands, which it won't because they're not winning.  Rinse, wash, repeat, it's a cycle so regular that washing machines are jealous.

 This circle of finger pointing has gone on for over a decade now, and all of the people running these areas, the Head Coach, Athletic Director, and External Relations Associate AD's, have been here for the entirety of that time.  A fan at the game against Elon told me that the feeling he got from the staff at the DAC was of "tenured" individuals.  No turnover, no urgency, it's a group that is appreciative of the status quo.  That's hard to argue.  They've had a decade to try to take this program to the next level, in a conference where they were surrounded by programs who have done and are doing just that.  

The fire Bruiser chants are increasing, and that is expected: this team is bad.  But Bruiser's basketball team is merely inheriting the characteristics that surround them, a culture that the Athletic Director has supported for 15 title-less seasons.  So go ahead and shout "fire Bru!" just realize that like the people who think Elon won this game by themselves, you're missing the point.  Accepting mediocrity doesn't leave with Bruiser.  Lack of donors and lack of facilities doesn't leave with Bruiser.  

An empty trophy case won't leave with Bruiser.

And that's the point.


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William & Mary - Pregame

Their win against Wofford stands as one of the best out of conference wins for the CAA this year (sad) and they can still shoot the lights out.  The Tribe has some skilled players in Tarpey, Dixon and Sheldon that can take some of the offensive pressure off of CAA Player of the Year candidate Marcus Thornton but their length doesn't make up for their lack of quickness on defense, like NU they turn the ball over too much, and they are badly missing Beasthoven's physical play.  They can't box out your grandmother, so they better make the first shot because they won't get a second.  A team that is this reliant on shooting makes their margin of error much too thin to be considered a favorite, and should struggle on the road where shooting percentages generally decline.  To wit, they went 1-4 on the road in out of conference play, with the sole win against a terrible Western Illinois squad.  W&M opens the CAA slate at home against College of Charleston but then has quick back to back roadies in Philly and Elon.  The rest of the schedule runs pretty favorable.  Mark em down for 8-1 at home, so if they can salvage 4-5 or better on the road (and they should) then they will finish towards the top of the table.

The above was posted in the beers of the CAA preview and was met with positive feedback from a few different folks down there that know what they are talking about it, which is always nice.  Understanding that tonight's game is a road game on short rest for the Tribe, this is a terrible spot for them.  No one, and I mean no one, thinks the Dragons are the better team in this game, but the tough scheduling for William and Mary makes it interesting.  Here's what to watch for:

1)  Offsetting the bad spot situation for William and Mary is the David vs Goliath battle of coaches.   After starting 0-6 vs Bruiser's Dragons in his first three years with the Tribe, the Tribe of Shaver has gone 9-6 against Drexel, including the Valentine's Day massacre game that will never be forgotten. 

2)   William and Mary will want to play a guards game tonight, similar to Iona and Elon.  Against the Gaels and Phoenix Bruiser indulged the opposing coaches, throwing a 4 guard lineup out there that couldn't keep up with the opposing guards.  Not only that, but the lack of big men on the court led to second chances: The Dragons were outscored 22-8 in second chance points last game.  

Stat of the day:  When Elon shot the ball, 68% of the time they either made the shot or got their own rebound.

Playing 4 guards is a choice.

3)  Damion Lee and Marcus Thornton are the two best guards in the conference.  Prior to Damion's injury red shirt they were in the same class.  Both are Maryland kids who saw plenty of each other prior to college and know each other well, so they always seem to be excited for this battle.  It's maybe the best matchup of the year, so enjoy the treat of watching those two face off.

With the pace of this game much slower than the last two, we should see more Mohamed Bah, and hopefully less 4 guard play, especially with Tavon Allen hobbled.  With the Dragons struggling this badly right now, I expect Tony Shaver to be able to take advantage, even with his own team playing as soft as the Dragons.  Welcome to your first CAA Rockfight of the year.
Prediction:  W&M 59 - Drexel 51
Vegas Line:  W&M -4.5

 Alan Boston's Take:

 Here comes one of my favorite teams and one of my favorite coaches. Wm+Mary has never had a great basketball team. They have had great basketball coaches. Charlie Woolum and now in his 12th yr. Tony Shaver. Wm+Mary runs beautiful offense. It is a joy to watch. Their battle as it is with any school that tries to run a program properly, is they get outathleted. They have most of the players back from a very good team. Their best player is Marcus Thornton, who may be the best player ever at Wm+Mary. They had a decent pre conference with a win over a very good Wofford team and close losses both at Richmond+Old Dominion. They opened CAA play by destroying Coll of Charleston. Strangely enough, they outrebounded C of C 43-24. Coach at C of C said his team looked out of it, so perhaps one can ignore the magnitude of the score and the rebounding. I root for Wm+Mary. They are one of the few programs that are in this for the right reasons. They usually struggle on the boards. I would think that Drexel matches up well with them, but I am not sure about anything with this bunch. You keep waiting for Drexel to get it together. Again, they have a game they figure to play well in. But after recent debacles vs Iona+Elon, I would not count on it. 

Still, I must go with logic

Drexel 68-67


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Friday, January 2, 2015

Elon - Preview

If there is still hope to be had for this years Drexel team, it's because they haven't lost to a bad team yet.  All of their losses this season have came against top 150 teams (kenpom and RPI).  This is why most ranking systems still have the Dragons sitting middle of the pack despite a 2-8 record.

Elon comes to the DAC on Saturday and they are not good.  The Pheonix have played a soft out of conference schedule which has led to a 6-5 record with their best win against Miami of Ohio.  Freshman Elijah Bryant is doing his best to make Tavon Allen look disciplined with his shot selection, they aren't getting anything from their frontcourt and their best shooter, Luke Eddy, just went down for the year with a knee injury.  That leaves Junior guard Tanner Samson as their lone threat from distance.  Samson takes 80% of his shots from behind the arc though, so against a man to man defense, as long as his man doesn't leave to help out, there is no reason Samson should threaten the Dragons.

The Pheonix want to play uptempo and for the second straight game I say let em.  As long as the Dragon guards spend a little less time admiring their shots and a little more time concentrating on transition D, that pace won't hurt DU.  It certainly appears that an uptempo game plays to Freddie Wilson's strengths at the point, and should create better looks for Damion Lee in transition as well.  Drexel's offense underperformed against Iona, but that was largely because of how soft DU played in the paint, it had little to do with pace of the game.  What uptempo will mean is less action for Mohamed Bah again, which is troubling with the absence of Rodney Williams.  DU is likely to see a 4 guard lineup at some point, and there will be significant pressure on the freshman forwards to perform.

 If Elon wins this game it will due to the Dragons turning it over.  If Freddie plays like he did against Iona, this game is the Dragons to lose.
Prediction: Drexel 68 - Elon 59
Vegas Line:  Drexel -5.5

 Alan Boston's Take:  Drexel starts their CAA campaign vs newcomer Elon.  They are led by long time Bob McKillop (Davidson) asst., Matt Metheny. He is a well respected head coach. Elon moves up to the CAA from the rapidly deteriorating Southern Conference. It is sad to see big money's ugly tentacles creep down to even the lower mid major level. Rivalries mean nothing. Money means everything. As teams scramble to find better conferences, to help recruit better players, to be a part of a lucrative television contract, we find leagues that bear little resemblance to what they looked like ten years ago. At least Philadelphia has the Big 5. Shame that Villanova still lives by scumbag Rollie Massimino's decision to not play their big 5 home games at The Palestra. Shame that money trumps tradition. Shame that big money has ruined college basketball. Come to Kentucky.  Play a year. Go to the pros. Basketball needs to do as baseball. Either go straight to the pros from high school, or you are required to stay at college for 3 years before you're allowed to go pro. College basketball should not be a minor league for the NBA. The big 5 should include Drexel and become the big 6. They should play all their games at The Palestra. Half the tickets go to each school. Although Elon fits well in the CAA, it does not mean they are here for the right reasons.

Elon has one starter returning from the schools best team ever. Like most majors, your home run team is senior laden. If you do it right, freshman replace seniors. Freshman who are not among the elite, struggle. Elon, recently lost one of their better scorers, Luke Eddy, for the season. Although they have won 2 straight since the injury, it was at Kennesaw St and home to Marist, not the best of competition. Elon does have a senior starting at all important point guard. Austin Hamilton continues to battle injuries that have haunted him since his freshman year. He played a season high 23 minutes in their easy (they led by 19 before late charge) win over Marist. He should be ready for more now that conference play begins. 

Elon is young and not overly talented. They are well coached which should scare any Drexel fans that remain. They have had some good efforts, winning in Miami Ohio, losing by only 13 at Duke, 5 at Missouri and 1 in overtime at Northwestern. They have won 3 in a row, 2 of which were on the road (although Greenesboro game was closer to neutral), so they come to Philly with confidence. Drexel has a big edge in talent but they are at a big disadvantage in coaching. Conference play is a new season. Among mid majors, it is all that matters. Drexel is the healthiest they have been in a very long time. With a new beginning, this looks like a good game for Drexel to turn it around. They should beat Elon, in fact, they should beat Elon with ease. But with the students not yet back, the big mismatch in coaching and a team that likely lacks confidence, you never know. I believe Drexel will get this turned around. Drexel 59 Elon 53
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Crack a Brewski, It's Conference Play Time

It's back!  The Beers of the CAA Preview is here just in time for conference play.  The Association is back to the 10 teams it started with when Drexel moved in over a decade ago (welcome, Elon) and it is completely wide open for the 2015 conference season.  No CAA team walks into conference play ranked in the top or bottom 50 in the NCAA (Pomeroy), everyone lost at least 4 non-conference games and there are more flaws than strengths when you look around the league.  If that doesn't get you excited then, well, you're right.

This year the preview has been modified to largely include beers that are available in the schools area.  If of age, have at it.  This year I added a "Games that could be trouble" line that lists a couple of games where I expect the team to underperform vs expectations.  As always, feedback is encouraged.

1 - Northeastern - Boston Beer Company (Sam Adams) - Utopia  - The undisputed number 1, although not quite a utopia.  They have one of the top coaches in the league.  They have three guards that can shoot, along with the best big man in the league.  With Eatherton, Spencer, and redshirt Junior Quncy Ford, they have veteran leadership. What they don't have is a point guard or another big man to take some of the pressure of off Eatherton.  Bill Coen seems more of a Zach Stahl fan than most, which is causing Reggie Spencer to spend an inordinate amount of time riding pine.  More importantly, while the guards shoot well, it's all they do.  They don't drive and get to the line enough and they turn the ball over much too often.  While Eatherton is a skilled big man and a big body, he's not the most physical presence in the paint, and this team as currently constructed can be out-toughed in a rockight.  The Huskies have the skill to win a couple of league games by 25+, but they're going to lose a couple of games they shouldn't, like they did last year to JMU and the Dub.  NU also got no help at all from the schedulers, playing a Thurs/Sat back to back 4 times this season with the second game in all of those sets on the road.  Historically, CAA teams do not travel well at all on 1 day rest.

What to watch for:  Turnovers.  Coach Coen has to get his guard situation fixed, quickly.
Games that could be trouble:  Sat Jan 10 @ Towson, Wed Jan 28 @ Drexel

2 - William and Mary - Williamsburg Ale Works - Jubilee - The default number 2 gets a beer that you should drink by the shot.  Their win against Wofford stands as one of the best out of conference wins for the CAA this year (sad) and they can still shoot the lights out.  The Tribe has some skilled players in Tarpey, Dixon and Sheldon that can take some of the offensive pressure off of CAA Player of the Year candidate Marcus Thornton but their length doesn't make up for their lack of quickness on defense, like NU they turn the ball over too much, and they are badly missing Beasthoven's physical play.  They can't box out your grandmother, so they better make the first shot because they won't get a second.  A team that is this reliant on shooting makes their margin of error much too thin to be considered a favorite, and should struggle on the road where shooting percentages generally decline.  To wit, they went 1-4 on the road in out of conference play, with the sole win against a terrible Western Illinois squad.  W&M opens the CAA slate at home against College of Charleston but then has quick back to back roadies in Philly and Elon.  The rest of the schedule runs pretty favorable.  Mark em down for 8-1 at home, so if they can salvage 4-5 or better on the road (and they should) then they will finish towards the top of the table.

What to watch for:  Marcus' Thornton to stay healthy, can they outshoot their opponents 13+ times?
Games that could be trouble:  Thurs Jan 8 @ Elon, Sat Feb 7 @ UNCW

3 - Hofstra -Allagash Brewing Company - Allagash Tripel - Pomeroy likes this team a lot, projecting the Flying Dutchman to finish tied at the top of the league with Northeastern at 13-5.  There's a few reasons to doubt this, most relating to a very poor out of conference schedule.  Bernardi and Tanksley have both shot 51% from behind the arc, which is unsustainable, and they are extremely reliant on the three ball.  HU profiles a bit like Iona, but without a skilled big man like Laury.  They'll run and gun and if a team doesn't guard all five guys no matter how far away from the basket they are, Hofstra will make them pay due in large part to Juan'ya Green's role as an elite pass first point guard.  

The Elon game is a terrible spot for them, it's part of their only Thurs/Sat back to back, and it's right before the Northeastern matchup, but otherwise the schedule makers were generous to Mihalich in his second year on Long Island.  HU may not be ready to beat the big boys, but in a league without any big boys, they should contend.

What to watch for:  Can they keep up the three point barrage once they hit league play and teams that will be looking out for it?
Games that could be trouble:  Sat Jan 10 @ Elon, Wed Feb 4 @ Delaware

4 - UNC Wilmington -Hardywood Park Craft Brewery - The Great Return - How much has this league slipped?  The joke of the league for the last half a decade is back in the top half of the projections, largely due to wins against not exactly powerhouse East Carolina and VMI.  A couple of things to note before you laugh this preview out of the room:  Despite the difficulties, Trask never became transfer U.  The Seahawks start three seniors, include two 4 year players in Freddie Jackson and the very underrated Cedrick Williams, along with Juco transfer Addison Spruill.  New coach Kevin Keatts has challenged freshman point guard Jordon Talley to run an uptempo offense, and Talley is clearly learning on the job, but if he can start giving his upperclassman teammates a chance, there will be some uncomfortable visitors in Trask this year.

What to watch for:  Can Jordon Talley grow as quickly as his team needs him to?
Games that could be trouble:  Wed Feb 11, College of Charleston at home, Sat Feb 21 @ Towson

5 - Drexel - New Belgium Brewing - Shift - Look around, and find the dumbest guy in the room right now.  Shave a few IQ points off of him, make him Drexel's coach, and then give him four NEC level players and Damion Lee.  That team should be at least middle of the pack in this watered down CAA.  Despite their 2-8 out of conference record, they get some credit.  For one thing, they're the rare CAA team that actually played a decent out of conference schedule, and for now they still haven't lost to a team outside of the kenpom top 150.  Additionally, Tavon Allen goes into league play as healthy as he's been.  

Folks will point to the loss of Rodney Williams for most of the CAA season (and the need to review the training and conditioning staffs efforts at DU) and that will certainly hurt the Dragons defensive effort, but here is something else to note:  Statistically Rodney Williams has been having the worst offensive season of any Dragon big man in the Flint era.  The offensive output from the frontcourt of this Dragons team simply can't be worse than it has been, and the guards will be better, let that be due to Tavon Allen's returning health, Damion Lee shooting the ball more, Sammy Mojica suddenly being allowed on the court, or the improved point guard play of... brace yourself... Freddie Wilson, who has been very much eating into the minutes of Rashann London as the out of conference season came to a close.  

What to watch for:  Can Austin Williams fill Rodney Williams shoes on the defensive end?  Will they stop being as soft as Charmin?
Games that could be trouble:  Sat Jan 10 @ UNCW, Sat Feb 7 @ College of Charleston

6 - College of Charleston - Founders Brewing Company - Kentucky's Breakfast Stout - It was a pretty close toss up between the 4/5/6 teams on this list, but UNCW's seniority and Damion Lee is what pushed The College down.  Similar to Drexel, C of C played a challenging out of conference schedule and beat all of the bad teams and lost to all of the good ones.  After a brutal offseason of change, it's up to seniors Anthony Stitt and Adjehi Baru to lead this team to contention, and the problem with that is that Stitt hasn't been good this year.  C of C continues to put Canyon Barry on a pedestal whether its because of his last name or his free throw "prowess", but his numbers just don't justify how much he touches the ball in the Cougar attack.  Barry is a spot up shooter that is being asked to do much more than that, let it be because of faith in him or because the Cougars simply don't have other options.   If you're looking for an old school CAA rock fight, look towards Charleston, because they sure aren't winning with offense.

 What to watch for:  Will a guard step up and become a go to scorer for this team?
Games that could be trouble:  Wed Jan 21 home v UNCW, Sat Jan 31 @ Delaware

7 - Towson - Bear Republic - Apex - Until last week, this team also fit in with C of C and Drexel in that they hadn't lost a game that they should have won.  And then the final week of 2014 happened, with losses to Navy and Fairleigh Dickenson.  The Tigers are big and will outrebound you which will be problems for teams that don't shoot well (see: Drexel, C of C) but their offense has almost entirely been spot up perimeter shooting from Four McGlynn and Alex Gavrilovic foul shots.  They slash, they don't do it particularly well, they hope they end up at the line and then they don't shoot particularly well when they get there.  All while playing poor defense.  Proof in the pudding:  Every time that TU has won this year, they have at least a 50% free throw rate.  If that all wasn't enough, the schedulemaker gave them 3 Thursday/Saturday back to backs with 2 of those 3 Saturday games on the road.

What to watch for:  Will anyone step up and hold onto the ball at the point?
Games that could be trouble:  Thursday Jan 8 home vs Drexel, Wed Feb 25 @ W&M

8 - James Madison - 3 Floyds Brewing and Surly Brewing (Collaboration) - Urine Trouble - They've got some guys.  Nation, Curry and Dalembert are a good core, and Kent and Grays are solid pieces.  What they don't have is any seniors, any awareness of when Nation gets suspended next, or guys who want to commit to great defense.  The Dukes disappointed last year, and we know what they are: a team that can beat anyone on any given night, and lose to anyone on any given night.  If Brady gets those core guys clicking and limits the turnovers, the Dukes have the talent and depth to end up right at the top of the league.  A front loaded schedule means things could be looking worse then they actually are at the midpoint of the season, and if guys don't buy in down there, things could get out of hand before the soft part of the schedule comes in February.  I bought in to the talent last year, and won't be fooled twice, so peg em 8th.

What to watch for:  Can they keep their guys on the court and create a winning environment
Games that could be trouble:  Thurs Jan 10 @ Drexel, Sat Feb 14 @ Elon 

9 - Elon - Sam Smith's Old Brewery - Winter Welcome Ale - Another team with a problem with guards handling the ball.  They just lost Luke Eddy for the season and while he didn't get a ton of minutes, he's been their best shooter by far this year.  They have a nice piece in Tanner Samson who is their answer to Four McGlynn, but that's offset by freshman Elijah Bryant thinking that he is Kobe Bryant, taking all of their shots and being brutally inefficient doing it.  The dude has scored 140 points on 123 shots this year, which would be fine except he's turned it over 45 times while doing it.  Like Drexel, this is a team that doesn't want to get their frontcourt involved in the offense so the alternatives to Bryant are limited and he's going to keep shooting.  His opponents will keep letting him.

What to watch for:  Can their defense keep them in games?
Games that could be trouble:  Mon Jan 5 @ Towson, Sat Feb 7 @ Hofstra

10 - Delaware - Lagunitas Brewing Company - Lagunitas Sucks - After graduating - or at least running out of eligibility - their two transfers, Suspendee of the Year Devon Saddler, and umm, terminating Jarvis Threatt's enrollment, UD enters the season undermanned.  Only one time suspendee Marvin King-Davis and Guy No One Noticed Kyle Anderson are left to lead Monte Ross's edition of the Blue Hens this year.  No one thought it would go well.  It is not going well.  Good news for Coach Ross and the Blue Hens though: If any Head Coach needs an assistant next year, Delaware is unlikely to mind if you contact him while he is still under contract.

What to watch for:  Will last years league title have to be vacated?
Games that could be trouble:  All of them


Assorted notes:

-- There's a lot of teams that have a mess at point guard this year.  Create pressure in the back court, collect free points in this league

--Drexel Dragons:  Worst game scheduled by the powers that be: A Thurs/Sat set with the second game on the road at William and Mary for Marcus Thornton's senior night

--With 3 uptempo teams in conference (Hofstra, Elon, UNCW) the era of Rock Fight U may be over, a blessing on all of our houses

--Outside of the first week of the season when every team must play 4 games in 8 days (necessary evil to get every team to 18 games) there are 10 times this season that teams play on both Thursday and Saturday.  In those 20 instances (10 games x 2 teams per game) 15 times the teams are playing the Saturday game on the road.  We've seen over and over again that teams traveling on one days rest underperform.  By having those teams play on the road so often, the league schedulers (outsourced by the league office, the CAA offices will refuse responsibility for this even though they could have intervened) have changed the competitive balance of the league.  Northeastern is particularly hurt by this with 3 short rest road games, while William and Mary only has 1.  If W&M wins the league by a game, they should send flowers to the league offices.
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