Next Steps

With the coaching search complete, and Zach Spiker having at least seen his office chair once it seems time to look forward to the nuts and bolts of what will certainly be a hectic offseason.  The good news for Coach Spiker is that relative to his last job, he has an ocean of time in front of him to prepare.  The bad news is he’s already behind the eight ball, noticeably more with the transfer announcement of Terrell Allen.

The first priority for this week and next is to assemble his staff.  The men’s basketball staff, as it sits, seems a bit thin:

While those plans are certainly in motion already, look for them to get wrapped up in the coming days, likely while Coach Spiker and Dr. Zillmer join the rest of the coaching community at the Final Four in Houston. 

Spiker had a relatively fresh staff at Army with the exception of Jimmy Allen, who just became Head Coach at Army.  That Army wants to retain Spiker’s staff should be seen as a good sign by Drexel and Army fans alike, but it also takes Allen’s name out of consideration for the Drexel bench.  Beyond Allen, we will see if Spiker can bring with him one of Justin Jennings, Brandon Linton or Drew Adams. 

The rest of the staff will have to come from elsewhere.  Once they do, it’ll be on to the very significant phase two:  player retention and recruiting for this year and next.  Before the recruiting begins the staff will need to know how many holes they have to fill.  Once they do, it’ll be off to the races as local and national recruiting showcases (hello Donofrio Classc) are already underway.  It’s these first two phases of this offseason that will likely shape the next 2-3 years of Drexel basketball, they are vitally important.  And with the transfers being announced left and right, and the spring recruiting efforts off and running time is of the essence. 

The importance of this time of year is why UNCW looked like a dumpster fire when they fired their coach midseason and didn’t have a new one signed immediately following the season.   And it’s why every Dragon fan looks on and chuckles as the University of Delaware takes their sweet time hiring a new AD and only then will hire a new coach, knowingly losing this time in the process and watching their men’s basketball program meltdown around them.

While his staff, retention and recruiting efforts go on in this critical time period, Coach Spiker will also have the “minor” responsibility of relocating his family, helping his wife settle in their three children to a new environment and all of the logistics around that.  This is all a way of saying that now that he has been introduced, fans may not see the coach for a bit.  That is a good thing.  April isn’t the time to be creating excitement in the fanbase, nor for dog and pony shows.  The recruiting dead period in late May or July?  Look for a gathering.  When ticket sales start up in September, absolutely.  But for today, lets just watch what he can do with a one month head start on Delaware.

Compass

Zach Spiker was introduced as the new Drexel Men's Basketball Head Coach today, in front of a crowd of (in order of estimated quantity):

1)  People paid by Drexel or on a Drexel Scholarship
2)  Assorted media
3)  Penn Athletics Staff
4a) Friends and Family
4b) Drexel Basketball Supporters

Generating support for the program is something that will be discussed throughout this offseason, beginning on these pages later this week.  Prior to that will be a triage campaign to maintain the level of support that the program currently has going into the off-season.  But if the reader is a donor, or a season ticket holder, or just a fan at large, and a Drexel Athletics staff member happens to cross your path over the next few weeks, here is a question to offer them:

What direction is the program going?

The Spiker hiring was an aggressive, and exciting move.  Besides what Coach Spiker brings to the table on the court, the Athletics Department is saving - this is a technical term - oodles of money over the next five years.  Most of that savings comes from paying Coach Spiker rather than Bruiser and his Associate Head Coach's sizable contract.  Will there be an announcement of where that extra allocation will go?

In Dr. Zillmer's letter to fans, no goals were stated for Coach Spiker with the exception of "He will do great things for Drexel." Stating specific goals in an email before the new coach even meets his team would have been overly aggressive, but a head nod towards a broad goalpost would have been useful.  And if this was such a significant day for the university, why wouldn't there be an effort made to ensure it was scheduled at a time that the University President could attend?

Perhaps more insight into the programs direction will be given once the Assistant Coaches are signed.   It's worth remembering that the off-season is barely upon us and that there is plenty of time before next season begins.  But at any time during the process it should be important to potential donors to know if and how the school is investing in its flagship athletics program.  Is this program high on the President's agenda? If one donates, are they going to see the school do their part to ensure a return on that investment?  Are there clear and public goals and standards that the money will go towards?   And after a new coach was hired, and after a public speach by the Athletic Director, how are these questions now more relevant, and not less?

Donating to a program without a clear agenda or goals, or a program that is just stagnant...  well, there's a belief that Drexel fans don't like lighting their money on fire.  The hiring of Coach Spiker is an exciting move, but it can't be the final move of this offseason, rather it needs to be the first step in clear leadership.  President Fry, Dr. Zillmer now need to execute a decisive "first hundred day" vision that shows leadership, direction, and an avenue for return on investment for potential donors.  What they can't do is leave the current question out there floating for months.

What direction is the program going?

Just #SpikeIt

One of the great advantages of writing on the internet is the ability to reference through link, and in this case also attach additional documentation.  Please see the bottom of the piece for some additional related documents.

I don't say this to be braggadocious but Drexel basketball is huge.

That's the clear message sent by the business-first President Fry and Drexel Board of Trustees.  When businesses are unsuccessful and their failures would cause mass chaos for the American economic system, the government is forced to step in and protect the citizens.  At Drexel, with the legitimate possibility of the DAC roof collapsing at any time because well, it's the DAC, they turned to America's muscle.  On Thursday March 24, 2016 it was widely published (Adam Hermann of the Triangle had it first) that Army basketball coach Zach Spiker would be the next men's basketball coach of the Drexel Dragons.

A quick gauge of the online community shows the move appears to be met with mixed reviews.  Coach Spiker wasn't one of the "hot" names coming into the offseason, he has an under .500 record and local recruiting connections may or may not exist.  When that's whats on the label, it's easy to understand that some will question the move.  The Drexel coaching job is a strong opportunity in a strong conference, a position which would be a significant stepping stone for hundreds of coaches - so why this one?  The answers come just as easy as the question, and begin with a mea culpa.

While we at the blog did an exhaustive search for candidates before writing our now largely ironic 21 Guns piece, we missed a few names.  It was within hours of posting the piece that Coach Spiker's name came up multiple times from sources.  He was a hot name, we just whiffed.  That's on us as a reporting entity.

With regards to Coach Spiker's under .500 record, Army went 25-35 (.417) in the two years prior to Coach Spiker taking the reins.  Once he arrived on campus, on short notice he couldn't do the normal coaching shortcuts, flipping the team with transfers, dumping academic standards, or pouring cash into recruiting - this was Army.  He had two options.  Roll up his sleeves with the players he had available or roll up his damned sleeves with the players he had available.  And while his career record at Army may be under .500, in the final 3 years of his 7 at West Point, when all of the players had spent four years playing for him, the teams record was 49-45 (.521).  At West Point.  This season, with a senior laden team and lofty goals that were enabled by his work at Army, may have been disappointing.  Certainly the home blowout postseason loss to Holy Cross gives reason for pause.  But for those pointing at his career win loss record at Army as a reason for concern, it might be worth a deeper look.  There's no there, there.

To put it bluntly, the recruiting issue is a concern.  Coming from 7 years on the Hudson, where recruiting is unlike 347 other NCAA D-I institutions, it has to be.  The response to this is twofold.  First, no judgement should be made until he fills out his staff (Associate Head Coach Ashley Howard would be as exciting as it would be unexpected and unrealistic).  Second see this, from that rat bastard really good guy and really good coach who coaches at the hellhole down the block:

"Zach has an incredible work ethic, he's willing to put in the time. I think a lot of guys in this business think recruiting is making a big splash and being dynamic in a setting. ... In reality it's the guy that's going to develop relationships over time through hard work, and really fulfilling all the things he talks about with the coaches and the families, and Zach does a great job of staying on top of kids and making them realize he's there for them. He did that for us time and again."

~Steve Donahue

Sounds pretty similar to the last guy to coach at DU, doesn't it?  And he wasn't such a bad recruiter himself.

For all of the great opportunity at Drexel there is an understanding that no potential hire will be a slam dunk.  Gregg Marshall, Brad Stevens, Mark Few, those guys aren't walking through that door.  The options available at a place like Drexel are a coach who has stubbed his toe at a higher level and is looking for an opportunity to reboot, a coach who has been moderately successful at a similar or lower institution, a coach without Head Coaching experience or... a gamble.  And at this level, if you're going to gamble it better be an educated gamble.  And that appears to be the best definition of what this hire is.

We know Coach Spiker has been reasonably successful in unusual and challenging circumstances.  We can see his pedigree, which is an absolute murderers row.  Gregg Marshall, John Beilein, Steven Donahue.  And while Bru had Coach Cal at the top of his cell phone, if a recruit asks, Coach Spiker can get Coach K or Bobby Knight on the line, relationships he has seemed to have forged at West Point.  We also have some numbers (we'll post another article down the road with more details on numbers and what to expect on the floor) that can tell a story.  Keeping in mind the most predictive stats the public has available today are two point shooting percentage, two point defense and turnovers, all of which showed marked improvement from his first season at Army to his seventh:

Educated Gamble

This wasn't the safe choice.  It wasn't the easy choice.  But it's a high ceiling choice.  It's an aggressive, go for it move, that yes, has a deep floor as well.  Mixed reviews, especially if one doesn't look deeply into the choice, are understandable.  But all of that is burying the lede.  Drexel Athletics just went big.  They got aggressive.  They took a well informed gamble.  Given the complacency that is so often spoken of, this is a stunning move.  In his email (posted below) to season ticket holders, Dr. Zillmer spoke of Coach Spiker's energy, his uptempo style, and his "modern coaching" (we'll figure out what that means, promise).  He even used this line:

In fact, Zach’s brand of basketball and personality perfectly fits the aspirations of our University as a creative, fast-paced, and innovative institution of higher learning.

It just got a little chillier in Hell, didn't it?

Lets make it a deep freeze.

President Fry, Dr. Zillmer and their staff should be lauded for taking a shot.  The letter to fans brilliantly captures and responds to many of the frustrations that have been verbalized for the better part of a decade now.  This move can be called a lot of things, but it can't be called safe, complacent, or asleep at the wheel.  It's an aggressive shot across the bow to Drexel's CAA brethren, especially those 45 minutes down I-95.  And it makes today a proud day to be a Dragon.







For reference:

Coach Spiker's West Point Contract
Coach Spiker's Army Bio


Letter from Dr. Eric Zillmer to fans:



Dear Drexel Basketball Season Ticket Holders,

I wanted to share the great news with you that Zach Spiker, who led Army West Point to its most wins in more than 30 years, has been named the new men’s basketball coach at Drexel University.

Coach Zach Spiker is an exceptional coach and person. He has unbelievable energy and he is a true CEO and modern coach of college basketball. I know you will come to love coach Spiker. His team plays a tactical, up-tempo pace and exceptionally creative basketball. Coach Spiker has a contagious energy and will bring a new excitement to the Drexel fan base, the CAA, and the City of Philadelphia.

In fact, Zach’s brand of basketball and personality perfectly fits the aspirations of our University as a creative, fast-paced, and innovative institution of higher learning.

Drexel’s new coach will be formally introduced to the Drexel community on Tuesday next week at noon outside the DAC. I would like to invite all of you to attend this event.

Zach also worked under well-respected coaches and administrators, all of who endorsed him enthusiastically as an ambassador of basketball and a “sure thing.”
John Beilein – Head Coach, University of Michigan
Gregg Marshall – Head Coach, Wichita State
Steve Donahue – Head Coach, University of Pennsylvania
Kevin Anderson – AD, University of Maryland
Mentored by Mike Kryzewski, Head Coach at Duke University and former West Point Coach.

They all told me the same thing, hire him; he will do great things for Drexel.

Spiker comes to the Dragons from Army West Point, where he spent the past seven seasons as the head coach of the Black Knights. He won 102 games during his time at West Point, tied with Naismith Hall of Fame coach Bob Knight for second all-time at the Academy. This season, Spiker led the Black Knights to a 19-14 record, tied for the best overall mark in the Patriot League. They earned Army’s first postseason appearance since another Hall of Famer, Mike Krzyzewski, led them to the National Invitation Tournament in 1978. The winner of the 2013 Patriot League Coach of the Year award, Spiker was also named a finalist for the 2013 Skip Prosser Man of the Year and the Hugh Durham Award, presented annually to the nation’s top mid-major coach. Spiker was one of only seven coaches in the country to receive at least one vote for the Associated Press National Coach of the Year honor that season.

In the near future and after he transitions from West Point to Drexel, I will personally introduce coach Zach Spiker to you.

Go Dragons!

Dr. Eric A. Zillmer

Quicksand

One can lead while advancing.  Contrary to popular belief, one can lead while in retreat.  It’s standing still that makes a leader hard to find.  President Fry and the Board of Trustees have led Drexel into a sprawling, competitive future throughout the prior six years.  While still a work in progress, the business minded pursuit of excellence was most recently shown in the announcement of Schuylkill Yards, the 3.5 billion dollar expansion plan announced earlier this month.  The leadership and quest for better is also what led to the dismissal of Drexel Men’s Basketball Head Coach Bruiser Flint just a week later.

That Drexel Athletics has not kept up with the growth of the rest of the university is not question, it is fact.  From the Armory debacle of the early ought’s to the significant empty seats at all athletic competitions this year, things at the NCAA level in the department have been at a relative standstill when compared to the overwhelming growth and construction seen throughout the rest of the University.  Some of that can be accredited to Coach Flint’s lack of success, as a rising tide in basketball would certainly rise all boats.  There are more challenges in today’s NCAA atmosphere than there were when Coach Flint was hired, and as Drexel looks to hire their next Men’s Basketball Coach it’s not the coach, but rather the leadership and symbolism shown by the administration that should  be the main concern of Drexel supporters and donors.

The newest, largest burden for the school is the NCAA’s admission of the Cost of Attendance stipend for athletes.  Some CAA schools are going to pay this stipend, it appears others will not.  Both Athletic Director Eric Zillmer and President Fry have been outspokenat a national level about the concerns that the COA will bring and the rise in spending within college athletics departments – many of which are a cost center and not a profit center for the school.  That they have been so outspoken about cost control in athletics while the rest of the university grows at impressive rates seems telling.  There appears to be a clear belief that Drexel Athletics will remain a cost center for the broader University.  It almost begs for a new slogan - Drexel Athletics:  DragOn Growth.

While these statements by Dr. Zillmer and President Fry were recently spoken , it’s also worth noting that Eric Zillmer brought Drexel Athletics forward by taking the leap from the America East Conference to the CAA in 2001.  And when President Fry hit campus, one of his first major moves was to give Bruiser Flint the longest and most expensive contract extension a coach has received at Drexel.  DAC renovations are continuing.  Money is being poured into the squash program.  These are all signs of investment and a desire to grow. 

If the reader is confused by all of this, please note that the writer shares your company.  On the one hand their words and outspoken criticisms of the finances of college athletics seem to make Drexel primed for a step backwards to the comforts of the America East Conference, Patriot League or even down a Division.  On the other hand the growth of the university, the contract that Coach Flint was working under and his recent release lead to the belief that the university would like to push forward and become a prominent name on the Athletics scene in a Philadelphia market.  There may be financial opportunity in becoming a local, conference or national leader. 

Perhaps the largest reason for the confusion is the lack of clear and concise standards shown by either Dr. Zillmer or President Fry.  In a letter to season ticket holders the dismissal of Coach Flint was said as “[Taking] the men’s basketball program in a different direction” without stating what direction the department is looking to go in.  Are they looking for a surge in spending to catch up to the rest of the university?   Is it time to acknowledge the rampant spending in D-I and take a step back?  What are the standards that Drexel Athletics ascribes to that Bruiser Flint didn’t meet?  All of those are unknown, and with them being unknown comes significant challenges towards advancing ticket sales, donations and other development.

What program donors, ticket holders and other stakeholders do have to look towards is this next coaching hire.  It may be the most clear statement they receive as to the aspirations of President Fry and Dr. Zillmer.  A rising young assistant from a high major school is a clear nod towards future growth.  A more seasoned coach from a lower, academically focused league presents a less clear message.  A D-II coach may present a clear message in the other direction.  That is generalizing and it’s important not to do that here – each name brings its own opportunity to the table, but the point remains.  This hire is a message.  The message of this hire can, and should, determine development efforts within the department for years to come.

When Oklahoma State hired a coach, the school's goal was known.  Similarly, when Dartmouth hires a coach later this month, their goal will be known as well.  At Drexel, there is a unique situation.  A turning point, and there are arguments to be made for transition in either direction, let it be acknowledging the challenging climate of D-I and the CAA today or playing catchup with the rest of the University.  The one thing, and the only thing, that fans should find unacceptable is doing neither.  As Ryan Koechig acknowledged in yesterday’s post on prospective hire Zach Spiker, this athletics department has stood still while their peers, both internal and external have moved.  

The one thing that stakeholders should find unacceptable with the next hire is a parallel move.  The school needs to show decisiveness, in either direction, or else they will continue to pay large dollars for very few returns.  As the empty seats of the last few years have shown, including that sad scene in the game against James Madison where President Fry sat alone in the President's Suite, a lateral move is not a profitable move.  One can lead while in retreat.  One can lead while advancing.  It’s standing still that makes a leader hard to find.  

Spiking The Punch During the Dance

With Zach Spiker's name regularly being mentioned as part of Drexel's coaching search, Ryan Koechig took to some research on the candidate. Here is some back story on one of the members of Drexel's "Short List":

There would be no arguing if you were to think of the current state of the Drexel men’s basketball program as being the same as the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail after his fight with King Arthur.

I will find any reason to make a Monty Python reference

Conference defections, losses, injuries and a plunge in attendance seem to have the program limbless on the ground and watching as all of the other programs in the CAA pass us by. New arenas, new practice facilities, new coaches or even new conferences have greeted rivals both new and old in recent years, while Drexel has remained relatively unchanged. So, if you’re Drexel Director of Athletics Eric Zillmer, who do you look towards to help put your Black Knight back together?

How about another Black Knight?

A few weeks ago, as the proverbial writing seemed to be on the wall pointing towards a change, a group made the leap to analyze the staffs of a number of schools searching for potential replacements. You can go back and read the list of 21 potentials here. Every name that is on that list is from a school that has played in the NCAA tournament at some point in their history. So it would seem an odd choice to turn the sites for candidate 22 to one of the five original programs to have never made it to the NCAA Tournament. Those five are The Citadel, St. Francis (NY), Northwestern, our friends the pantsless Griffins of William and Mary and The United States Military Academy at West Point. One of those schools happens to be the Black Knights, and I’m writing this to introduce you to their head coach.

When you think of a head coach producing program, the first one to come to mind is probably not Army (it’s probably not in the top fifty). However, two coaches you’ve probably heard of have roamed the sidelines as coach of the then Cadets: Bob Knight and Mike Krzyzewski. With that in mind, let’s take a look at their current coach, Zach Spiker. If you’ve been paying attention online, you would have seen his name pop up as a potential candidate to succeed Bruiser Flint over the weekend. He has just completed his seventh season at the helm in West Point after taking over from recently dismissed St. Louis coach Jim Crews after he was dismissed at Army and found a landing spot on Rick Majerus’ Billiken staff. Over those seven years, Spiker has amassed an overall record of 102-111 and a Patriot League record of 45-65, while never finishing the regular season higher than fourth and with no postseason appearances of any kind. You are now probably a bit upset that I’ve made you read about 450 words leading up to a coach who has a losing record, but let's dig a little deeper.

The final season of Coach K’s stint as Army’s head coach was the 1979-80 season. He finished his fifth season with a record of 9-17. Since that year, Army has finished .500 or better only four times. Zach Spiker has been the coach for three of them, and they’ve all occurred in the last four years. Army has had only three seasons where they finished the Patriot League regular season with a .500 or better record since joining the league for the 1990-91 season. Zach Spiker is the coach that has accomplished that as well. Three coaches in Army history have won 65 or more games in their first five seasons as coach, Bob Knight, Mike Krzyzewski and Zach Spiker. Spiker has led the Black Knights to 15 or more wins four years in a row. That’s the first time that’s happened for the program since a run from 1920-1924. He’s done this at a school that holds its athletes to standards that are even higher than what they would be here at Drexel while also dealing with the Academic Index of the Patriot League. So while the overall and conference records may not be as impressive as you may want, the success he’s had in a very difficult location for coaches is impressive.

Spiker, 39 (he’ll be 40 by the time next season starts), is a 2000 graduate of Ithaca College where he was a member of the basketball team. After graduation, he immediately began his coaching career as a graduate assistant under current Wichita St. coach Gregg Marshall at Winthrop University. He spent two seasons in Rock Hill, S.C. with each one ending in a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Spiker then moved on to West Virginia University where he was an administrative assistant under current Michigan coach John Beilein. His responsibilities with the Mountaineers included on-campus recruiting visits, postgame film development and opposition scouting. WVU was invited to the NIT in his second and final year there, in which he also was awarded his master’s degree in sport management. Spiker returned to Ithaca, New York in 2004 joining the staff at Cornell under the leadership of current Penn coach Steve Donahue. His time as an assistant saw a huge turnaround of the Cornell program. As one of the lead recruiters, the Big Red would win three consecutive Ivy League titles (the third was after Spiker left to coach Army) and the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament that came with them. Cornell became the first school that wasn’t Penn or Princeton to accomplish a three-peat. Cornell would also set season program marks for wins, points, three point field goals and blocks during his time there. Spiker would leave Ithaca for West Point after five seasons and Cornell posting a 50-20 Ivy League record in that time frame.

Spiker’s hiring at Army did not follow the conventional former "Coach is fired at end of year and a new guy is brought in shortly after" timeline. Jim Crews had just signed a contract over the summer to remain the Black Knights’ coach. However, a confrontation with a player led to Crews being removed on September 24, just a few weeks before the beginning of the 2009-10 season. A phone call from Steve Donahue to Army AD Kevin Anderson to recommend his top assistant for the Army position ultimately led to Spiker signing a six-year deal for his first head coaching gig. From his now former boss:

"Zach has an incredible work ethic," Donahue said. "He's willing to put in the time. I think a lot of guys in this business think recruiting is making a big splash and being dynamic in a setting. ... In reality it's the guy that's going to develop relationships over time through hard work, and really fulfilling all the things he talks about with the coaches and the families, and Zach does a great job of staying on top of kids and making them realize he's there for them. He did that for us time and again."

http://cornellbasketball.blogspot.com/2009/10/local-news-on-zach-spiker-departure.html

The question that really matters most is what could Drexel expect from a Coach Spiker led squad? That limbless Black Knight used as a metaphor for the Drexel program would need to regenerate some legs, because it’s going to run. Army has run at a top 75 Tempo in the country every year, save his first, that Coach Spiker has been in charge, reaching as high as 10th for the 2014-15 season. The Dragons will also need to regenerate their arms as stats show they will be jacking up a lot more three point attempts. Army has finished in the top 60 in the nation in terms of percentage of shots taken behind the arc every year, again, except for Spiker’s first year. All of this has resulted in a program that ranked 317th in offensive scoring per game his first season, to one that has now ranked in the top 100 for three of the last four seasons. The increase in scoring has been accomplished by an effective field goal percentage that has generally ranked in the top half of the country helped by ball movement that has seen the Black Knights with an assist rate consistently in the mid to upper 50's. That's important. It's a big piece that DU has been missing, and it's a key indicator of a well run offense.

There are some concerns with Coach Spiker, which is to be expected when looking for a replacement at Drexel’s level. It will be very important for Dr. Zillmer to decide whether these concerns are a function of the school and conference that Spiker coaches in or whether these are defects that will need to be addressed in the hiring of a potential staff of assistants. Chief among these concerns is that of the Black Knights’ defensive play. Jim Crews had gotten Army to being a top 100 defensive efficiency program while the offense lagged far behind. The top 100 ranking held during Spiker’s first season, but then saw it fall to where it bounced between the low to higher 200s. Perhaps this was a function of the aforementioned school/conference, however, looking at the same stat adjusted for only Patriot League play shows that Army has finished an average of 6th during the Spiker regime. That would seem to imply that the issue is with either the players that can be brought into Army being limited, or this being a deficiency in his coaching ability. This most recent season saw the team’s defensive efficiency settle at 197, the second season in a row that this metric has improved. Should Spiker end up the hire, there would be no way of knowing whether these last two years were the makings of a trend or just a couple year blip.

Another concern is on the offensive end. While it is true that the Black Knights have been one of the better scoring teams since Coach Spiker took over, the efficiency at which they have scored has not been all that great. Five of his seven years have seen Army’s offensive efficiency rank between 245-335 nationally. The two better years were 2012-13 and 2013-14 where they ranked 120th and 175th respectively. Again, looking at this metric adjusted for only Patriot League play, Army has an average offensive efficiency rank of 6.6. The main reason for this disconnect would appear to be due to the Black Knights turning the ball over on roughly 20% of their possessions. Another potential issue is their very low free throw rate not allowing them to pick up free points, which is likely correlated to the abundance of three point attempts his teams take. They haven't gone inside enough to be fouled at a regular clip, which may be coach, but is just as likely due to the normally undersized Army squads.

All in all, Zach Spiker is a very intriguing candidate for head coach of the Drexel Men’s Basketball program. He would definitely appear to be a complete 180 from the Bruiser Flint Era in terms of tempo and defensive prowess. A contract extension he signed with Army prior to the 2013-14 season and lasting through the 2017-18 season would need to be addressed, but if he has emerged as one of the lead candidates, it would appear to be a minor issue. While he has definitely had some success in a difficult coaching situation, there would be a risk in assuming that some of the red flags that were discussed would be mitigated by his moving to a conference that should be able to attract more talented players. Depending on who would round out his coaching staff, it could be a risk very much worth taking. If anything, his hire would add another level of intrigue in the Battle of 33rd Street as Spiker would be going up versus his mentor and former boss in Steve Donahue. 

He’s also undefeated against Delaware.

Rumblings From the Search

Below are some assorted nuggets from the grapevine commingled with some internal thoughts that will answer some frequently asked questions, and perhaps create others:

--Yes, Bashir Mason and Geoff Arnold are likely picking up interviews.  There are many reasons for both the school and the individuals to go through this process, both practical and political, but don't expect much to come of it.

--The Hoop Dirt piece from 3/10 jibes with what I have been hearing.  The standards that Bruiser Flint maintained are expected to be, well, maintained, on the academic and compliance side.  That makes a long look at Ivy and Patriot League coaches worth doing, but don't forget some high majors like Notre Dame.  On those lines, I think the link to the Pitino family may damage Kimani Young's (asst coach, Minnesota) chances.

--The two names that have come across my desk the most this week?  Zach Spiker of Army and Will Brown of Albany.  Neither screams instant turnaround, recruiting mastermind or excitement, but both are coaches worthy of this level and known as good people.  Spiker in particular has run good offense at Army, which is tough to do, and is on the younger/up-and-coming side.  And the track record of Army coaches...  is not bad.

--I have not heard the names Brian Earl, Niko Medved or Kevin Kuwik at all.  Really hope those names get the consideration that they deserve, if they are interested.  They fit the bill and are remarkable individuals.

--The two top names from the earlier piece looking at coaches around the country continue to show up.  I believe Caputo's sites are higher, but Inglesby feels about right for this level.

--The Doug Overton rumors haven't died, and there appears to be interest with Scott Cherry.

--The name that was a bad miss on the perspective candidates piece was Joe Jones.  He's a complete fit to the profile and if the price is right I think he would take the gig.  Head coaching experience at elite academic schools (Columbia, BU) with assistant experience at Villanova and Hofstra, providing a local and CAA connection.  He has some Philly/NJ kids on the BU roster, he can recruit the area if you're into that.  His name hasn't come across my desk, and he may be slightly older than they are targeting, but he makes too much sense and he's too good of a coach not to take a long look at.

Bracket Tips from the Analytics Department

A big thank you to everyone who took the time to reach out yesterday, your generosity is very much appreciated.


Today we borrow from last years bracket tips article to offer some bracket advice for this season.  Here is some guidance for your 2016 NCAA Tournament:

Location Matters

Studies have shown over and over again that referees calls are influenced by fan behavior.  This is a fact of life.  In arenas where there is a strong rooting interest, there will be an advantage at play for the well supported team.  In the NCAA tournament, those fans will also root for a live underdog in the other game at the same arena, hoping their team will get an easier draw.  Here are some teams with large followings who will see some type of home court draw:

Temple & Villanova, rounds 1&2 (Brooklyn)
Yale, rounds 1&2 (Providence)
Oklahoma, Texas & Texas A&M, rounds 1&2 (Oklahoma City)
North Carolina, rounds 1&2 (Raleigh)
Purdue, rounds 3&4 (Chicago)


Look for Balance

In the last two seasons, 19 of the 24 Elite 8 teams were in the top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  Here are a list of contenders that people are picking this year, but will not end the year in the top 50 in both categories.  Don't expect a deep run from:

Team (Seed)

Kentucky (4)
Iowa St (4)
Duke (4)
Indiana (5)
Baylor (5)
Notre Dame (6)
Dayton (7)
Oregon St (7)

So Yale/Baylor...

Winning Streaks Lead to Winning It All

In the past decade, 5 of the 10 NCAA Tournament winners were "major conference" teams that also won their conference tournament.  Since only 7 of the teams in the field were major conference winners (6 before the American Athletic Conference came around), a 50% hit rate from those 7 of 64 teams is extremely impressive.  The sample is small, but it seems to point to the idea that no one "needs a loss" to go into the tournament hungry.  Here are your major conference tourney winners this year:

Kansas
Oregon
North Carolina
Michigan St
Seton Hall
Kentucky
Connecticut


Defense Wins Championships

In the past 6 years, every national champion has been in the top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency and done that against top 20 offensive strength of schedules.  Here are the teams that could do that this year:

Virginia
Kansas
Michigan St
West Virginia
Villanova
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Seton Hall
Wisconsin


One and Done, but not Done Done

In this season we've seen a lack of impact from "1 and done" freshman similar to those that have propelled Kentucky, Duke and others in years past.  This provides an opportunity to fall back on the old standby that experience brings wins come tourney time.  While mid majors such as Tulsa, Arkansas Little Rock and Chattanooga lead the field in experience, Iowa St, Miami, and Oklahoma are in the top 50 nationally as well.  Congrats to those programs for developing talent at the major conference level, and maybe passing out a degree or two as well.


One Last Note

I've never won a bracket pool in my life.  The greatness of March is that it supersedes number, every game is one small sample size after the next, and we will cheer like hell for Cinderella the entire way. So after you're done with this and carefully made your picks...  rip it up and just flip a coin for each game.

March is here.  Enjoy the holiday.