Guest Post: CAA Thoughts With Alan "Boston" Dvorkis

While the blog's CAA preview does not come out until the end of the out of conference season, I am beyond delighted to be able to share Alan Dvorkis' thoughts on each CAA team below.  For those not familiar with the name Alan Boston, he has made a career watching college hoops, and has been acknowledged as "almost frighteningly smart" by former Vegas bookmaker Scott Schettler.  He has followed this blog for the last year and is seemingly continuously working to make me less of an idiot as well, all of which I am tremendously grateful for, and the only reason I'd let a Penn guy write on these electronic pages.  Without further ado, Alan:

I mentioned that I would give a CAA preview a shot, from a gamblers perspective. I am Alan "Boston" Dvorkis. I have earned a living exclusively by betting on college sports, mainly basketball for the last 26 years. But why this blog? After all, the only attachment I have to Drexel is my dearly departed close friend Sally Soloman, who taught chemistry at Drexel for many years. Still, I learned to love college basketball, while attending the University of Pennsylvania from 1976-1980. I was fortunate enough to see the Big 5 bloodbaths that ALL were played on a neutral court*, The Palestra. It was amazing. There were even double headers. One admission paid for both. Yes, perhaps I am a bit of an old school romantic. I enjoyed 45 second shot clocks. I do not like the 3 point shots. I loved when college hoops was played out in old gyms, like the snake pit, where the students were on top of the floor. Now, big money has ruined the once wonderful game. With big money, comes all this ridiculous conference realignment so I must check and see who is even in the CAA before I write my thoughts. Here is my attempt at succinct brilliance. 

College of Charleston - Tricky call as their new coach was not hired until August. Still, Earl Grant has terrific pedigree as he was a long time assistant to one of the top 3 coaches in the country, Gregg Marshall, he was then an assistant to another great coach Brad Brownell, so I am sure he will do fine. This team disappointed the last 2 yrs, so I think the coach will eventually be a big upgrade. With 2 returning seniors in the backcourt, Stitt at the point and Baru.  I do not think this team will drop off from last year,  even though the coach has minimal time to put his stuff in. This is a very good program, that with this coach, I think will be at or near the top of the CAA within 2 years, that is, if the league still exists. This year, Charleston will finish in the upper half, with the top spot, not entirely out of the question.

Delaware - I was happy to see Monte Ross finally have some success. He seems like a quality human. However, his success came more from having athletes, than from x's and o's. The problem with relying on athletes, especially when you're a mid major,  is that you eventually play someone more athletic and you are left with no way to win. With only 1 starter returning and the likely upgrade in recruiting that comes with NCAA bid not yet relevant, unless Coach Ross remembers his Phil Martelli roots and uses some of the beautiful offense that Martelli's teams run and that Ross' teams used to run, this team with one scholarship senior and a freshman point running the show will struggle for sure. Bottom half of the league likely.

Drexel - Well, I am a big Bruiser fan, so I shall not shit on him like many are ready to. He is just a jam up human and a good, not great coach, but if I had a son who played hoops I would be honored to have Bruiser coach him. I know, it is all about the winning now. You have to make the tournament to get the big bucks. At least if Bruiser makes the tournament - and this team can - it wont be with shady recruiting, with false promises or paid off AAU coaches. Last year Drexel was a lock to make the tournament until a myriad of players missed 50 games to injury. With ever changing lineups, chemistry was lacking. Bruiser also butchered a couple of end games, but it was the injuries that destroyed what could have been an amazing year. Remember this team dominated Arizona, (the team I have rated number one this year) for a good part of the game. Then after losing to Arizona the next night, under impossible conditions beat Alabama in a trillion overtimes. I am told that Abif is done and someone else too [Major Canady], but his name is not Lee or Allen or Williams, so hopefully that will be it. There is still plenty of talent here. Yes, it is tough to win with a freshman point guard, but if this team defends like a typical Bruiser team and does not have any more injuries, I think they will win the CAA.

Elon - From the Southern Conference, which sadly has basically disbanded comes the Phoenix. Matt Metheny a long time assistant to the terrific Bob McKillop has done a very good job here. Last year was his best year, and with it, his first recruiting class graduated. So with many seniors gone, he is left with one returning starter. If senior point guard, Austin Hamilton is healthy, it will ease the losses. Hamilton started at the point as a freshman but injuries have stunted his playing time. It reads like he is healthy, if he is, it should keep them out of the basement but still in the bottom half of the league.

Hofstra - This seems to be peoples dark horse, but in spite of both the fantastic Juan'ya Green and Ameen Tanksleyin who came with Mihalich from Niagara now being eligible and in spite of the excellent track record of Joe Mihalich, I still think they are a year away from winning the conference. The only 3 players that return from last year were all starters and Mihalich is an excellent recruiter, so the talent level is way up, and it all adds up to a contender, but I feel just not quite enough to win the league. Mihalich has surprised me before.

James Madison - 2 years ago, JMU won the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament and save Matt Brady's job. Last yr, 6 seniors graduated from that team, to be replaced by 6 freshman, then Andre Nation, their best player was suspended a total of 17 games and of course they struggled. Well Nation is back [suspended for the first 5 games] and he is a beast. Junior Ron Curry moved to the point last year and did well. The 6 frosh were thrown to the wolves and will be the better for it. Like Hofstra this team has a good upside but I think they are a notch below the top tier teams.

Northeastern - Bill Coen is terrific. This year he returns all 5 starters and gets his best player Quincy Ford back from injury. Ford played in only one game last year. Their point guard TJ Williams started every game as a freshman. He was excellent and should be that much better this year. Coen always gets the most out of what he has and this year he has an experienced team that has talent. He will get absolutely the most out this team but they too must avoid injuries. If they stay injury free, they will battle for the top spot.

Towson - What a job by Pat Skerry. From 1 win to 18 wins followed by last years home run 25 wins. They lose their top 4 scorers including a freak named Benimon. He is irreplaceable. They also need a new pg who will be a juco or a frosh. The school is investing in hoops. They built a new facility, told Skerry he had all the time he needed and they were rewarded with an unbelievable year in 2014. They will drop off this year, but he is recruiting at a high level, so the program is strong. They will be low to middle of the pack this year, but after this year, they will be a threat every year until they go to a bigger league.

UNCW - Wow. I was wrong. Buzz Peterson was a disaster. Even hiring the brilliant Eddie Beidenbach as his lead assistant last year did not help. Now UNCW has hired a Rick Pitino assistant, Kevin Keatts. I doubt he will be very good, no matter, it is sad to see this once strong program fade. The talent there is down. I doubt Keatts will be an x's and o's genius and he will need talent to press all over the place to overcome his lack of schemes. Last place is likely this year. He is a good recruiter, so they will not be down long.

William & Mary - I often wonder what would Tony Shaver do, if he had Duke like talent? Scratch that, it would be unfair. What if he had Harvard like talent, I mean The New Amaker Harvard like talent (yes, an intentional dig)? He would be top ten for sure. Well he has to deal with William & Mary talent, a strong academic school that will not relent as Harvard did. Only 2 starters return, but one of them is Marcus Thornton, possibly the greatest to ever play at W&M. So Shaver has some talent. He also has several who played many minutes last year. He has a couple who are returning from injury. He has a potential future star at point in redshirt freshman Michael Schlotman. He lost 3 starters but he still has talent and Shaver does not need much to win. A definite threat for the title. 

So Drexel, Northeastern, William & Mary will be top 3. College of Charleston 4. UNCW last. The others in between. Hope at least a few sentences have relevance. I am not much of a previewer as I know the relative strength of a program but not the nitty gritty. Nevertheless, I said I would write something, so here it is. Enjoy this blog. It is excellent. Enjoy the hoops, even if the powers that be attempt to ruin. 

*Note from Dragons Speak:  Only a Penn guy can call that court entirely neutral!

Looking Back to Look Forward

It's the Super Bowl, World Series and World Peace all rolled into one!  It's...  Dragons season tip off!

You may have noticed a distinct lack of previews on this site.  You may have seen injury news from the Dragons and wonder why it hasn't been up here.  You may ask yourself, how do I work this?  And you may ask yourself "Where is that large automobile?" You may look at the DAC and tell yourself "This is not my beautiful house!"  As you watch the calendar turn and let the days go by before the season starts.

The challenge has not been lack of information (although with 5 newcomers, there's an argument), or even lack of time.  The challenge has been the filtering of that information.  There's so much out there that with a record of 0-0 you can make almost any argument for the Dragons outlook this season.  They may have 2 of the top 10 players in the CAA starting for them, leading them to greatness.  You can argue that they had 2 of the top 10 last year, and ended up in mediocrity.  Or you can assume that Rodney Williams is too undersized to dominate, they have already lost at least 40% of their starters for the year in Major and Abif, and even in a weak conference they are ripe to get rolled.

Usually this blog has an opinion on everything, but this time it's gonna weasel and in the next three days we'll present all three arguments for you to enjoy.  We also hope to have 1-2 CAA-wide pieces, possibly with a college hoops guru guest writer.  A lot of content to hit the wall here in the next four days, and I'll be tweeting court-side in Boulder come Friday.  Until all of that is ready to go, I leave you with links into the past, from what I thought were three of the most important items we saw last year that will be meaningful this year:

It's a Trust Thing - The Need For Balance

Praising Bru - In Which We Saw Bru Trying to Evolve

Not Just in PJ's - In Which We (Rightly) Crush Bru and Staff for Loving the Jump Shot

Royal Rooting

The Kansas City Royals have made the Major League Baseball playoffs this year for the first time since 1985.  In a sport where the lowest payroll is well over forty million dollars, it’s hard to find a band of loveable overachievers.  When Derek Jeter, the #46 best baseball player of all time per WAR (and possibly the worst defensive player ever) gets commercialized to the point where he is celebrated by literally every team in the league on the event of his departure, there is a “National Game of the Week” every day of the week depending on which channel you watch, and a third of each league makes the postseason, it’s hard to see these guys as old school, hard working types banding together to win. 

In the 2013 season, we may have seen as close to the Impossible Dream season as we will ever see again.  A Red Sox team coming off of a last place finish watched their adopted city take a body blow in April, and they responded by winning the World Series, seemingly out of nowhere, being led by guys who, years before were about as likely to lead a team to a Series victory as Larry, Moe and Curly were.   David Ortiz was cut by the Minnesota Twins before he told everyone just whose [bleeping] city he played for.  Dustin Pedroia may have been balding on his thirteenth birthday, is listed 5’8” and has already won more MVP’s than the aforementioned Jeter,  Jon Lester is a starting pitcher that had to beat cancer before he became the guy with a 2.11 postseason ERA. 

Jon Lester pitches in the playoffs tonight.  The #NVRQT message that he stands for is one that everyone can get behind, and many a Red Sox fan will still be rooting for him and his story, even as he pitches for the Oakland Athletics.  Some Red Sox fans are also Dragons fans though, and those fans will be looking in the other dugout for their storyline.

This isn’t about the Royals decision to renovate Kauffman Stadium rather than build new (nor the lack of attendance increase they received from it, because that was in line with new stadiums as well), although it kind of is.  It’s not about their lengthy playoff drought although it kind of is.  It’s not even about them standing by Dayton Moore (GMU ’89) since 2006 despite a record of 594-702 (.458) since his first full season as GM in 2007, complete with five 90+ loss seasons and zero 90+ win seasons.  It’s about the combination of all of these things.

The Royals have watched six teams get new stadiums in the last decade, while they put lipstick on their 48 year old “The K”.  It’s been ten years since Michael Lewis’ book “Moneyball” came out, extolling the value of the walk in baseball.  The Royals have been in the bottom ten in baseball in walks every year since it was published, including dead last three times.  They gave a contract extension to a below .500 General Manager who went to GMU!  Based on this it's pretty clear that they may think that George Brett is still on the team, that you should wipe a little dirt on that concussion and it’ll be fine, and that the internet is a fad that will be over any time now, certainly well before Y2K wipes us all out.

And that’s just it. 

The Royals may be outdated, out of touch, and small market, but they’re winners now!

Every season brings with it a 0-0 record.  Every season brings with it hope.  And even if your Athletics Department's flagship program is twenty years behind the time, at a “technology-infused”* school, and would rather self teach themselves cutting edge techniques than bring in someone from outside “the family” to assist, there is hope.  

I bought my season tickets this year because I support the Dragons.  I support the student athletes and I support the laundry.  I bought my season tickets because the Royals, who were dead last in walks again this year, won anyway.  Because it’s sports and weird stuff happens and there’s always a chance.  And when that happens, I want to have been there the whole time, have gotten the whole experience, the wins and the losses.  That's the best part of being a fan.

Buy your tickets, get your popcorn ready.  Listen to the top 40 hit from DJ Bru Featuring Calvin Hicks "Four Letter Words (Defense)".  Tip off is in 45 days away.  For tonight though, it’s the Royals who give my Dragons hope.  

Sorry Jon, Go Blue.

*“Drexel is an academically comprehensive and globally engaged urban research university, dedicated toadvancing knowledge and society and to providing every student with a valuable,rigorous, experiential, technology-infused education, enriched by the nation's premier co-operative education program.”

The Schedule (Well most of it...) Is Here!

This is two games short, the Saint Francis game and one other TBD.  File this under "where there's smoke there is fire" but according to some Rhode Island followers, they are no longer playing Brown on New Years Eve.  At the same time, there are three potential spots for Drexel's two remaining games: New Years Eve, December 23, or the first week of December, which is the week prior to finals week.  Smoke, fire, we'll see.  With four (4!!!) OOC home games against some really solid opponents at the DAC, Drexel can afford to start a home and home on the road or (my preference) take a small guarantee with that last spot.  A hat tip to Coach Connors & Company for creating the best home OOC slate since Bru arrived from UMass.   Fans should be excited about this schedule, and about the new DAC seats to see them from.

With the CAA schedule now laid out, there are three obvious knocks right off the top:

1)  A back loaded schedule, with five of the last eight going into the tournament on the road.  Tough to have momentum going into tournament time with a schedule like that, if you believe in momentum.

2)  The Elon then C of C road swing in early February kicking off the end of season road wars features a Thursday/Saturday set.  Those two schools are a 4+ hour bus ride apart in good weather and CAA teams are notoriously bad on the road on one days rest.  Especially when both games are on the road.

3)  Noting the last comment above, the Dragons also have a Towson/UNCW set both on the road, just two days apart.  UNCW and C of C on the back end of both of those sets may seem like a break, but in reality those are the road games that a good team absolutely must win, and they are now both games that are very much at risk.

On the flip side of the coin, if you're a believer in Northeastern, William and Mary and Hofstra as the teams to beat in the CAA next year then DU caught a few breaks.  They play W&M on one day rest at home, but the Tribe will only have one day rest on the road for that game.  Hofstra will play at DU on one days rest while Drexel has the full two days off between games.  

The NU/DU budding rivalry will continue with full sets of rest for both teams in all meetings.

Oh, and in case you missed it:  Mario the Magnificent and his boys will be hosting the Delaware Blue Hens on senior night.

Welcome Home Dragons

The Weeks of the Dragon have ended in China.  And while we delight in our conquering heroes (3-1 on the road trip) trip, we can also get a chuckle.  I leave you without further comment, but with two tweets posted within an hours of each other:

Back in the States. China was amazing. Beijing Shanghai unbelievable. What a great time. Plus we played well. Lol. Happy being home.

— Bruiser Flint (@ducoachflint) September 2, 2014

Excited to be back in America is an understatement

— Major Canady (@major25canady) September 2, 2014

14-15 Out of Conference Schedule Updates

For those looking to make travel plans, or just curious, here is what is publicly available at this time, along with their kenpom.com ranking from last season:

Known Games:

1 Friday 11/14 – @ Colorado  - Kenpom  77  Returning  - 5 starters

2 Thursday 11/20 – Miami FL (Charleston Classic)* – Kenpom 69 – Returning  2 starters

3 Friday 11/21 – TBA (Charleston Classic)*

4 Sunday 11/23 – TBA (Charleston Classic)*

5 Sunday 11/30 – Southern Miss – Kenpom 56 – 1 starter

6 Saturday 12/13 – La Salle – Kenpom  105 -  Returning 2 starters

7 Tuesday 12/16 - @ Buffalo – Kenpom 100 - Returning 2 starters

8 Saturday 12/20 – v Penn St (PPL Center) - Kenpom 82 - Returning 4 starters

*Games will be broadcast on the ESPN Family of Networks

The following games are known, however schedule information has yet to be released:

9 St. Joe’s – Kenpom 46 – Returning 2 starters
10 @Saint Francis (PA) – Kenpom 306 – Returning 5 starters

Going with known information, I expect the SFU game a day or two prior to Thanksgiving, and Saint Joe's to be the week of Christmas (probably Tuesday, 12/23).

Somewhat concerning is that at this time of year the staff is still looking to fill the last two holes in the schedule.  While DU is usually at the tail end of the curve when finishing out the schedule, finding two decent opponents to get into a home/home series with may be a challenge.  Good candidates still looking for a game include URI, who DU has scheduled at the last minute in the past.  Both schools are looking to fill similar calendar dates.

All in all though, a favorable schedule versus some very solid programs.  Home games versus Southern Miss, St. Joe's and La Salle would have been a pipe dream as recently as five years ago (09-10 OOC home games:  Vermont, Toledo and Saint Francis (PA)).  The Buffs will very likely be the best team the Dragons play, and on the first game of the season anything can happen, a good time to be playing them.  The rest of the big names on this list are coming off of strong seasons and are young this year, giving DU a chance to face some teams that could end strong while those teams are still coming together.

I'm sure we'll be hearing great things after the China trip (stay healthy boys) and more thoughts will be put to paper on the upcoming season come late September into October.  In the interim, I'll post any schedule updates as I have them.  In the meantime, enjoy some baseball, football, and hey maybe even a little Philadelphia Union soccer.  

News and Notes

Jamming a bunch of items that have been on my plate onto one post:

--Following up on the last post, runners in the Boston Marathon raised 25.7 million dollars for charity this year.  The legacies of Krystle Campbell, Martin Richard, Lingzi Lu and Officer Sean Collier will continue in athletic opportunities for youth, on family dinner tables, and medical research labs throughout New England and the rest of the world.  Their lives mattered, thousands stepped up to ensure that they did, and no compliment is higher than that.

-- The Drexel Lacrosse run is worth a post on here but for a lot of reasons it didn't happen.  It wasn't for lack of storylines, being the first DU Lax team to make the dance, having to play on the Richmond-like "neutral" fields at Penn and Delaware, and 3 goals in 11 seconds are just a few.  The most meaningful storyline for this Drexel fan was the first round game against Penn.  Drexel was an underdog, it was their first time in the dance and it was on the road, but much more importantly, it was an NCAA sanctioned event.  This game put the Dragons in the rare position of as equal footing as the NCAA could make it.  Penn usually objects to playing DU on a level playing field, as evidenced by their basketball teams refusal to play home and homes amongst other things.  When the Dragons get that opportunity, no matter the sport, they need to put Penn Athletics right where they belong, on the bottom of the West Philadelphia sporting hierarchy.  The lacrosse team did that and did it with class and vengeance, so give those kids and coaches a hat tip, they done good.

Onto basketball:

--At a season ticket holder meeting on Thursday night (well chronicled at this link by the Blue and Gold Club) Dr. Zilmer released some scheduling highlights for the 14-15 Mens Basketball season.  Among the highlights were opening the season at Colorado, the Charleston Classic on the weekend before Thanksgiving, a game against Penn State at the PPL Center in Allentown, and very impressive home games against La Salle, Southern Miss and St. Joe's (Bru candidly noted that the La Salle game is largely because the La Salle coaching staff thinks the Dragons will be down this year).  Expect St. Francis (PA) and Buffalo for true road games as well.

The Charleston Classic field is a bit of a mixed bag, Buffalo, St. Joe's and Southern Miss should be down, La Salle wasn't that great last year even with Garland and Duren and St. Francis is who we thought they are, but Colorado and Penn State should be strong contenders and the Dragons may get PSU twice, both times on a neutral court.  If the Drexel staff thinks more of this team than La Salle's does, then look for another buy game in there to firm up the strength of schedule.   Given the unpleasant results of last season and the staff being on the brink of a lame duck season, you might more expect some cupcakes to fill out the final two games in the early season agenda.

--The roster is firming up, without a lot of drama as to who will be in the starting 5 (There might be competition for Bah's spot, but that's about all that can change -- barring injury):

PG:  Major Canady
G:    Damion Lee
G     Tavon Allen
F      Mohamed Bah
F      Rodney Williams

Making the assumption that Freddie Wilson's inconstancy precludes him from making the starting point guard spot a competition, the team will look for him to be a solid 6th man and backup at all three guard spots.  Those six are the only returning players, and will ensure that Bru's normally short rotations remain in place.  No longer do you need to worry about Bru starting the wrong guys, he has no other choices this year.  It also means that in the event of injury (beyond Kaz's) there won't be the depth of the last two years to turn to.
--  Four freshman are already signed, guards Rashann London and Sammy Mojica and forwards Tyshawn Myles and Austin Williams.  I expect Rodney's former AAU roommate Austin (unrelated) to be the third guy on the big man depth chart, but with no big man older than a sophomore expect foul trouble to insist that all four forwards get minutes.

Rashann London is a Philly kid that chose Drexel over Delaware after receiving offers from both, and we expect decision making skills like that to really help the shooter on campus, but expect more from Sammy Mojica, who is smooth with the ball in his hands and is reported to be quick defensively.  With four guards in front of those two on the chart, expect neither to get too many minutes unless they go above and beyond to earn it.

With Ahmad Fields sitting out a year as he transfers in from Utah, one available scholarship remains and the DU coaches are saying that they want to fill it.  Recent history trying to fill scholarships this late in the year makes that a little dubious, and with only player due to come off the rolls at the end of the season (Freddie Wilson) saving the scholarship for next year and making 2015 a two man class may also be an appealing option for Bru and Co.


_________________________________________________________________________________

Coming up on the site, some additional thoughts to close out this past season, and then the beginning of looking towards next season.  One thing that struck me at the season ticket holder meeting last week was that after the "Phase 1" DAC improvements (locker rooms, team areas etc) that none of the projected "Phase 2" improvements seemed to benefit the home teams competitiveness.  I believe that investing in winning will return more for each dollar than any other investment that the Department can make.  When asked, Dr. Zilmer stated that the coaches had everything they wanted at this time, but I encourage others to followup and see what fans and stakeholders can do to help this program compete.  I'll be following up on that myself and hopefully there will be something in this space in the weeks to come.  Winning will get the DAC air conditioning.  Winning will get the DAC bathrooms.  The program is entering its 19th season since their last dance.  This needs to be their first, last and only priority with the resources available.